**Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis:**
On September 18th, gold market news analysis: During early Asian trading on Thursday (September 18th, Beijing time), spot gold traded near $2,568.12 per ounce. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with Fed Chair Powell noting weakness in the employment market. Market participants interpreted Powell's remarks, leading gold to retreat from its intraday record high of $2,703.35 per ounce on Wednesday.
At 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, meeting market expectations. This marks the Fed's first rate cut in nine months. Officials believe recent labor market weakness has outweighed inflationary pressures. The Fed indicated it will steadily reduce borrowing costs for the remainder of the year.
The rate decision passed with an 11-1 vote, with the sole dissenter being new board member Steven Milan, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut. Regarding the rate path after September, the Fed's dot plot median shows expectations for two additional rate cuts this year, one more than the June projection. Specifically, among 19 officials: 9 expect two more cuts this year, 2 expect one more cut, 6 expect no further cuts, 1 expects a rate increase, and 1 expects at least two cuts of 50 basis points or more.
**Gold Technical Analysis:** Current market conditions show that despite the 25 basis point rate cut, gold retreated after rallying due to Powell's hawkish tone. The overall trend indicates gold's weak pattern is undeniable and should continue to face downward pressure. Therefore, today's focus should be on the current low support at $2,646, with consolidation above this level and a break below targeting $2,615.
For resistance, initial attention should be on the rebound high at $2,670, followed by the key $2,680 area. The former favors bears for a second test or break of lows, while the latter represents strong short-term resistance. Any rebound below this level should be viewed as corrective. If bulls strongly break above, gold could return to the $2,700 level with potential for further short-term upward momentum.
However, sustained gains are unlikely given the confirmed top-bottom conversion structure at $2,670 and $2,685 from previous trading, plus the decline started from $2,707 following Powell's remarks. This indicates highs are gradually moving lower. If gold follows a stepped decline pattern, even with further consolidation, highs can be expected below $2,707, with subsequent pressure leading to stronger and deeper declines.
Overall, today's short-term trading strategy suggests primarily selling on rebounds with secondary buying on dips. Key short-term resistance: $2,685-$2,695; key short-term support: $2,650-$2,640.
**Latest Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis:**
Oil market news analysis: During early Asian trading on Thursday (September 18th, Beijing time), WTI crude traded near $63.76 per barrel. Oil prices fell Wednesday following data showing increased U.S. diesel inventories, raising demand concerns, alongside the Fed's expected rate cut.
Brent crude futures closed down 0.76% at $68.22 per barrel; U.S. crude futures fell 0.73% to $64.05. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories dropped sharply last week with significant export increases and import declines. However, analysts noted that rising distillate inventories intensified demand concerns and pressured prices.
**Crude Oil Technical Analysis:** From the daily chart perspective, after consecutive bearish candles, oil formed a narrow range bottom with prices repeatedly crossing moving averages, indicating medium-term consolidation. Monday's brief break below range support has not yet formed a sustained downward trend, suggesting crude will likely maintain weak consolidation in the medium term.
Short-term (1H) movement shows a breakout above range resistance with upward momentum. The moving average system shows bullish alignment with short-term objective trend pointing upward. Oil prices approached the $64 early high with narrow consolidation, showing sufficient bullish momentum and suggesting continued upward bias for the day.
Overall, today's crude oil strategy suggests primarily buying on dips with secondary selling on rallies. Short-term resistance: $65.5-$66.5; short-term support: $63.0-$62.0.