Will Hong Kong Stocks' "Spring Festival Effect" Repeat? Fund Manager Analysis

Deep News
6 hours ago

As the Spring Festival approaches, the trajectory of Hong Kong stocks is drawing market attention. Historical patterns suggest a tendency for Hong Kong stocks to experience a "sudden surge" ahead of the holiday. GF Securities' review of pre-holiday trends from 2010 to 2025 indicates that the Hang Seng Index has an 82% probability of rising in the three trading days before the Spring Festival, while post-holiday performance shows no clear calendar effect, with a probability of increase between 40% and 60%.

Focusing on the closely watched internet leaders, is a turnaround imminent? Feng Chencheng, Fund Manager of the Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770), pointed out that the correction in Hong Kong AI stocks since January 30th was primarily influenced by the global AI sector adjustment trend, alongside disruptive factors such as antitrust investigations into internet platform companies, the "red envelope" marketing battles, tax rate concerns, and geopolitical issues.

Specifically, antitrust investigations are company-specific events; regulating the standard operations of giants in specific sectors helps establish clear boundaries for the entire industry. Customer acquisition through red envelope campaigns is a seasonal marketing activity during the Spring Festival, which can broaden the age demographic of new customers and expand the customer base, thereby aiding the iterative improvement of AI products. Based on the principle of statutory taxation and the current Value-Added Tax Law, tax rate changes resulting from the reclassification of basic telecommunications services in the telecom industry do not extrapolate to the income tax rates of internet companies. Concerns regarding geopolitical risks have also somewhat eased.

From the current standpoint, short-term sentiment-driven disruptions have been largely digested. With the listing of new AI model companies like Zhipu and Minimax on the Hong Kong market, and a subsequent pipeline of AI-related emerging companies seeking financing in Hong Kong, the proportion of AI technology firms within the Hong Kong internet sector is destined to increase significantly. The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770), as a tool for accessing core Hong Kong AI assets, is expected to see its instrumental value become more prominent.

Seizing the opportunity in 2026, considered the first year of AI commercialization, attention should be paid to core tools for Hong Kong AI. The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) and its feeder funds (Class A: 017125; Class C: 017126) passively track the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index. Its top ten holdings, including Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, Kuaishou-W, and Bilibili-W, aggregate leading tech giants and AI application companies across various sectors, accounting for nearly 77% of the portfolio, demonstrating significant leading advantages.

For investors bullish on Hong Kong tech but seeking to reduce volatility, consider the market's first Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560). It employs a "Tech + Dividend" barbell strategy, with major holdings encompassing high-growth tech stocks like Alibaba and Tencent Holdings, alongside stable high-dividend stocks such as China Construction Bank and Ping An Insurance, making it an ideal foundational holding for long-term Hong Kong market allocation.

A reminder: Recent market volatility may be significant. Short-term gains or losses do not indicate future performance. Investors must make rational investment decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, paying close attention to position sizing and risk management.

Data source: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, etc. The annual performance of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index for the past five full years is as follows: 2021: -36.61%; 2022: -23.01%; 2023: -24.74%; 2024: 23.04%; 2025: 27.02%. The index constituents are adjusted according to the index compilation rules, and its historical backtested performance does not predict future index performance.

Institutional view source: GF Securities report dated February 9, 2026, "How Do Hong Kong Stocks React Around the Spring Festival? - Hong Kong Market Strategy Outlook."

ETF fee-related information: When subscribing for or redeeming fund shares, the subscription/redemption agent may charge a commission of up to 0.5%, which includes relevant fees charged by the stock exchange and registration institutions. Feeder fund fee-related information: For the HuaBao CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF Feeder Fund (Class A), the front-end subscription fee is 1% for amounts below 1 million RMB, 0.6% for amounts between 1 million (inclusive) and 2 million RMB, and a flat fee of 1,000 RMB for amounts of 2 million RMB and above. The redemption fee is 1.5% for holdings less than 7 days, and 0% for holdings of 7 days or more; no sales service fee is charged. The HuaBao CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF Feeder Fund (Class C) charges no subscription fee; the redemption fee is 1.5% for holdings less than 7 days, and 0% for holdings of 7 days or more; a sales service fee of 0.3% is charged.

Risk提示: The Hong Kong Internet ETF passively tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index. The index base date is December 30, 2016, and it was published on January 11, 2021. Index constituents are adjusted according to the index compilation rules. The mention of index constituents herein is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice in any form, nor does it represent the holdings or trading动向 of any fund managed by the manager. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk等级 as R4 - Medium-High Risk, suitable for Aggressive (C4) and above investors. Any information appearing in this text is for reference only, and investors are solely responsible for any independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or forecasts herein do not constitute investment advice to readers, and no liability is accepted for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee this fund's performance. Past performance of the fund is not indicative of its future results. Fund investment carries risks, and caution is advised when investing in funds.

MACD golden cross signals have formed, and these stocks are performing well.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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