In 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market saw 114 new listings raising over HK$280 billion, reclaiming the top spot globally and reinforcing Hong Kong's status as an international financial hub. Since the beginning of 2026, the Hong Kong IPO market has maintained strong momentum, leading global markets. By the end of April, a total of 47 new listings had debuted in Hong Kong, compared to 17 in the same period last year, with combined fundraising exceeding HK$150 billion—a sixfold increase year-on-year. However, alongside the significant rise in new listings, a wave of share lockup expiries for cornerstone and pre-IPO investors is set to test the market's absorption capacity. The total scale of expiring shares for these investors in 2026 has reached a record HK$780 billion.

Multiple AI and hardware technology companies are facing cornerstone investor lockup expiries in July, amounting to approximately HK$150 billion. According to LiveReport data, as of April 29, 2026, shares held by cornerstone investors in newly listed companies are set to be unlocked throughout the year, involving over 880 cornerstone investors and an estimated HK$210 billion in value based on current share prices. Between May and November, around HK$150 billion worth of shares are expected to be released. July will see the largest expiry volume, primarily involving several high-profile tech companies that listed earlier this year. These include Biren Technology (6082.HK), Tianshu Zhixin (9903.HK), Zhipu AI (2513.HK), MiniMax-W (0100.HK), and GigaDevice (3986.HK)—all prominent players in the AI and hardware technology sectors.

The scale of pre-IPO investor lockup expiries is even larger, totaling approximately HK$570 billion. From May to December, pre-IPO investor share unlocks are expected to reach around HK$510 billion. Notably, July and December will each see pre-IPO lockup expiries exceeding HK$100 billion in a single month, potentially posing significant challenges to market liquidity and investor demand for related stocks. Key companies with substantial pre-IPO investor expiries include MiniMax-W (0100.HK) in July, Chery Automobile (9973.HK) in September, and Xunce (3317.HK) in December, with unlock values of approximately HK$84.3 billion, HK$72.7 billion, and HK$56.3 billion, respectively.

Market liquidity appears sufficient to absorb the potential sell-off, though pressure on individual stocks should not be overlooked. It is important to note that not all unlocked shares will necessarily be sold. While some private equity funds and financial investors may have incentives to reduce holdings, strategic or industrial investors typically do not divest easily. As a result, the actual market impact may be much smaller than the total unlock value suggests. Year-to-date, total turnover in the Hong Kong stock market has exceeded HK$21 trillion, with average daily trading volume around HK$270 billion. This level of liquidity is generally adequate to handle the potential sell pressure from lockup expiries. However, the impact will vary across companies. Stocks with already weak liquidity may face greater pressure when cornerstone and pre-IPO investor shares become tradable. The effect of lockup expiries also depends on the type of investor. Pre-IPO investors often have very low acquisition costs and may be more inclined to sell if valuations are significantly above their entry price. Cornerstone investors, who acquire shares at the IPO price, exhibit different behaviors based on their investment style: - Long-term strategic or industrial investors, such as supply chain partners, typically have low divestment intentions, limiting the impact. - Well-known long-term funds or sovereign wealth funds, such as Hillhouse, GIC, and Temasek, tend to hold shares unless there are fundamental changes, making their impact manageable. - Hedge funds or multi-strategy funds, which adhere to strict investment discipline and focus on short-term risk-return ratios, may choose to realize gains after lockup expiry, creating notable selling pressure. - Individual investors or family offices are harder to predict; their actions depend on whether they are industry insiders, long-term shareholders, or purely profit-driven. Many cornerstone investor groups include hedge funds and trading-oriented accounts whose investment logic is tied to short-term IPO performance. These investors are likely to reduce holdings post-lockup, representing the primary source of selling pressure. When market trends diverge, companies with solid fundamentals and shareholder bases dominated by long-term capital may experience only "paper pressure" from expiries. In contrast, firms with elevated valuations and cornerstone investors composed of speculative capital may see unlock events act as catalysts for price declines.