Recent global shipping monitoring data from the past 24 hours indicates a slight increase in shipping activities linked to Iran, specifically involving two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) under Western sanctions. This occurs while major Western shipping firms largely continue to suspend vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz. According to compiled vessel tracking data, eight commercial vessels transited the strait on Tuesday, with four more identified early Wednesday, most of which are associated with Iran or have commercial ties to the Chinese market.
This minor uptick in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20-30% of global energy shipments, coincides with escalating regional hostilities. On Wednesday, the large cargo vessel Mayuree Naree was struck by an unidentified projectile while traversing the strait. Another large bulk carrier signaling "China Owner & Crew," but with an unspecified nationality, promptly turned around and departed the area following the incident, highlighting the rising security risks in this critical shipping lane.
On Tuesday ET, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that ten Iranian minelaying vessels had been destroyed. Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz shows Iranian VLCCs leading departing convoys, while some bulk carriers claiming Chinese affiliations are quietly entering. The passage, vital for global crude and LNG transport, remains highly perilous, yet not entirely devoid of traffic, primarily consisting of vessels with specific backgrounds.
Furthermore, despite challenges in real-time monitoring due to extensive electronic warfare tactics, data from Tankertrackers.com indicates that up to 13.7 million barrels of Iranian crude have been shipped through the strait since the conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran began on February 28.
As the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively under military blockade, oil production cuts in the Middle East are deepening, exacerbating turmoil in energy markets. This round of cuts represents the most substantial supply-side response since the outbreak of the current conflict, effectively reducing combined output from the four Gulf oil giants by up to one-third, equivalent to a 6-10% reduction in global supply.
The geopolitical conflict, now in its second week, has drawn over a dozen Middle Eastern nations into the fray. With the primary energy export route effectively closed, storage tanks across the region are filling, forcing major energy producers to slash output significantly. These cuts drove the international benchmark Brent crude futures toward $120 per barrel on Monday, though prices saw a sharp reversal within 24 hours after President Trump suggested the war might end soon.
Saudi Arabia has cut daily production by 2-2.5 million barrels, the UAE by 500,000-800,000 barrels, Kuwait by approximately 500,000 barrels, and Iraq by around 2.9 million barrels. Proportionally, Iraq's cuts are the deepest. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stated this disruption is the most significant crisis ever faced by the region's oil and gas sector, with severe ripple effects on shipping, insurance, aviation, agriculture, and automotive industries. The longer the disruption lasts, the more catastrophic the impact on global oil markets and the wider economy.
Overall, latest shipping flow data shows the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal operations. While mainstream Western shipping remains largely halted, some vessels linked to Iran or with Chinese commercial ties continue limited transits under high risk. Widespread electronic warfare, including spoofing and jamming, has complicated real-time monitoring. Some vessels turn off AIS transponders in high-risk zones, leading to data lag and subsequent upward revisions of historical transit figures.
Early Wednesday, two sanctioned Iranian VLCCs were observed departing the Persian Gulf for Asia, likely destined for China, with their draft indicating full loads. On Tuesday, a convoy of five bulk carriers, one container ship, and one LPG carrier—all linked to Iran or Chinese commercial shipping—was detected rapidly leaving the area. While some vessels still successfully transit, most industry capacity remains stranded on both sides of the strait until maritime security is restored.
Following Iranian retaliation against U.S. and Israeli strikes and missile attacks on several merchant ships, traffic through the channel has virtually stalled, despite no official Iranian announcement of a blockade. Missile and drone activities continue to pose severe risks to all nearby vessels.
Notably, as large hydrocarbon carriers can sail without broadcasting AIS signals until well clear of the Strait of Hormuz, automatic identification signals are compiled across a broad area covering the Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, and Red Sea to identify vessels that may have entered or exited the Persian Gulf. Potential transits are identified by checking signal history to distinguish genuine voyages from spoofing. Some transits may go undetected if a vessel's transponder remains off. Iran-linked tankers often depart the Gulf without AIS, only resuming signals approximately ten days after passing Fujairah near the Strait of Malacca. Other vessels may employ similar tactics, disappearing from open-source tracking screens for days. Therefore, current vessel tracking data should be viewed as the best available estimate, not a complete, real-time, error-free record, as many vessels disable AIS near Hormuz or face electronic interference, creating a semi-opaque environment where shipowners "go dark" to avoid risks, sanctions, or targeting, while electronic warfare generates false signals.