Urea prices in the domestic market are showing strength amid global instability. Daily domestic urea production remains high. While wheat top-dressing fertilization is largely complete, industrial demand is steady with a slight increase. Although there are no new export quotas, export expectations are strengthening, contributing to an overall firm spot market.
The ammonium chloride market is experiencing brisk sales with active trading. Enterprise operating rates have increased by 3.23% week-on-week, though potential for further significant increases appears limited. Compound fertilizer plant operating rates have rebounded rapidly post-holiday, with active procurement. Soda ash plants have ample order backlogs and low inventory levels, creating an overall bullish atmosphere.
The ammonium sulfate market continues its positive trend. Expectations for ammonium sulfate exports have risen significantly due to international market influences, while domestic demand consists mainly of essential procurement. Domestic caprolactam and coke plant operations are limited, preventing a rapid increase in supply, and the overall market sentiment remains strong.
International urea export margins have climbed further due to geopolitical tensions, although no new export quotas have been issued at this time.
Operating rates have reached their peak. Urea daily production is expected to remain above 210,000 tonnes. Operating rates are projected to stay above 90%. Despite planned maintenance shutdowns at several plants, including Henan Zhongyuan Dahua, Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical, and Huayang Group's nitrogen-based facilities, with Henan Zhongyuan Dahua potentially resuming production, operating rates are expected to remain at a consistently high level.
Enterprise inventories continued to decline last week, falling by 12.79% week-on-week. Post-holiday inventory drawdown has been rapid, supported by rising compound fertilizer operating rates and solid downstream demand. Port inventories have fallen to low levels and are expected to remain range-bound at low levels unless export policies change.
Domestic demand continues to be driven by essential spring ploughing needs. Influenced by rising raw material costs, compound fertilizer prices have gradually increased post-holiday. Enterprise sales are smooth, supported by spring ploughing demand, suggesting compound fertilizer prices may remain firm in the short term.
Post-holiday, compound fertilizer enterprises have continuously increased their operating loads to meet robust demand. According to industry information, operating rates for compound fertilizer plants in North China have rebounded. Plants are running normally, and some previously idled facilities in Hebei province are planned to restart soon.
Domestic melamine prices have shown strong short-term gains, with prices in Shandong accumulating increases exceeding 7% since before the holiday. During the holiday period, operational instability at several plants, combined with temporary shutdowns at others, tightened supply. Costs have risen noticeably, pushed up by urea price increases driven by international factors.
Coal prices have been stable with a slight upward trend recently. Profitability for coal-based producers remains acceptable, likely supporting the maintenance of high operating rates.
The synthetic ammonia market shows significant regional divergence. Prices in the south have increased by over 100 yuan due to numerous plant maintenance schedules, while northern prices face pressure from temporary supply increases. Overall, the market is strong, supported by smooth domestic and external shipments.
Futures prices are fluctuating with an upward bias. The spread between May and September contracts appears weak.
Warehouse receipts for urea futures registered in March have begun to increase significantly, while enterprise inventories continue to decline.
The balance sheet has been adjusted slightly, with downstream demand estimates raised slightly due to the recovery in compound fertilizer demand.