In recent days, U.S. President Trump has been actively pursuing diplomatic solutions to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, holding consecutive meetings with Russian President Putin, Ukrainian President Zelensky, and multiple European leaders. However, analysts suggest that regardless of the ultimate outcome of the Russia-Ukraine situation, it is unlikely to significantly impact global oil and gas markets.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, Russia has faced multiple rounds of Western sanctions and restrictions that have severely impacted the country's massive oil and natural gas industry, causing Moscow to lose substantial key revenues and reshaping the global energy landscape.

Russian natural gas now accounts for only 18% of European imports, down dramatically from 45% in 2021. Similarly, the EU's crude oil imports from Russia have dropped from approximately 30% to just 3% during the same period. The EU plans to completely phase out Russian energy by 2027.

Meanwhile, India has significantly increased its proportion of Russian crude oil imports, rising from 16% in 2021 to the current 38%. Turkey and other Asian countries have also markedly increased their purchases.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has resulted in over one million casualties, and any resolution would naturally be widely welcomed. However, analysts believe that unless there is a comprehensive ceasefire and all U.S.-European sanctions are lifted, the energy market response would be limited. Clearly, such a scenario is extremely unlikely.

In more probable scenarios, whether it's Trump's summit with Putin last Friday or his meetings with Zelensky and European leaders this Monday, the outcomes are unlikely to significantly shake oil and gas markets.

Energy analyst Ron Bousso believes comprehensive peace is almost impossible. Trump appears inclined to push for full reconciliation rather than just a ceasefire, a position that actually increases divisions between the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe. Additionally, his proposal to provide post-war security guarantees for Ukraine would almost certainly face resistance from Moscow. In other words, Russia-West relations are unlikely to fully normalize in the short term.

Trump might pressure Zelensky to accept a temporary or partial ceasefire. However, even in such cases, Europe is unlikely to resume importing Russian energy as long as Putin remains in power. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration data, before 2022, Europe consumed nearly half of Russia's 4.7 million barrels per day of crude oil exports and 75% of its natural gas exports.

The Trump administration might attempt to unilaterally ease some sanctions, but without a broad peace agreement, this would face resistance in Congress, with uncertain support even within the Republican Party.

Bousso suggests a more likely scenario is that Trump fails to reach an agreement, but this similarly would not cause major impacts on energy markets.

The U.S. might tighten sanctions, particularly targeting buyers of Russian energy, which Trump has previously threatened. However, last Friday Trump stated there's currently no need to consider implementing so-called "secondary sanctions" on China, citing the "success" of his talks with Putin.

India has already faced secondary tariffs for purchasing Russian crude oil. Earlier this month, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing India's continued imports of Russian oil. The new tariff takes effect on August 27, bringing the total tariff level on Indian goods exported to the U.S. to 50%.

While Indian buyers appear to be reducing their purchases of Russian crude oil, the impact on global supply is limited as other countries continue to increase their purchases of Russian oil.

More critically, oil and gas markets are entering a phase of oversupply, meaning any potential disruption in Russian supply could easily be compensated. The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to exceed demand by 1.76 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 3 million barrels per day in 2026, primarily due to production increases from OPEC+ and the Americas.

The global liquified natural gas (LNG) market is also rapidly expanding. New capacity will come online in the coming years from the United States, Qatar, Canada, and other regions. The International Energy Agency predicts LNG annual capacity will increase from 500 million tons in 2024 to 800 million tons by 2030.

Therefore, while Trump's foreign policy remains unpredictable, one thing is certain: he cannot "end the Ukraine conflict in one day" as he once claimed, and what he can achieve would have extremely limited impact on global oil and gas markets.