Spot gold extended its weakness during the Asian trading session, with prices falling to around $3,960 per ounce, continuing the corrective trend from the previous trading day. This pullback is primarily driven by a combination of shifting macro interest rate expectations and fluctuating geopolitical sentiment. As the market assesses the situation in the Middle East, it is also repricing the Federal Reserve's policy path, placing gold in a short-term, pressured consolidation pattern under multiple intertwined drivers.
On the geopolitical front, news from the U.S. indicated that U.S. and Iranian officials are expected to hold a new round of talks in Doha, Qatar, leading to some market anticipation for a de-escalation. However, Iran has not confirmed the reports, leaving diplomatic uncertainty high and preventing safe-haven demand from forming sustained momentum. While the market remains highly sensitive to Middle East developments, the lack of substantive escalation or systemic conflict diffusion has kept safe-haven buying in gold relatively restrained.
Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve's policy path remains the core factor pressuring gold's performance. Although the Federal Open Market Committee held rates steady at its June meeting, the policy stance signaled "keeping rates higher for longer" and the possibility of a rate hike within the year, prompting the market to reassess the real interest rate environment. As gold itself yields no income, its relative attractiveness diminishes significantly in a high-interest-rate environment, which is a key reason for the recent sustained pressure on gold prices.
Market analysts note that the gold market is currently in a tug-of-war between "safe-haven support and interest rate pressure." On one hand, Middle East tensions could still trigger short-term safe-haven pulses with sudden news. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields remain resilient, supported by high-rate expectations, exerting continuous pressure on gold and making it difficult to form a trending upward structure.
In the short term, market focus is concentrated on the upcoming U.S. ADP employment data and Non-Farm Payrolls report. Strong employment figures would further reinforce market expectations of the Fed "keeping rates higher for longer," boosting the dollar and adding extra pressure on gold. Conversely, signs of a cooling labor market could weaken dollar momentum and provide temporary support for gold.
From a capital flow perspective, overall market risk appetite remains cautious. Precious metals are currently behaving more as a temporary safe-haven allocation rather than a trending bullish asset. At the institutional trading level, short-term long and short positions are switching frequently, with volatility remaining in a relatively high range.
Looking at the daily chart structure, gold remains in a corrective pullback phase following its previous high. After retreating from the prior peak, the price has gradually entered a downward-sloping consolidation channel, with trend momentum weakening but not yet completely breaking the medium-to-long-term uptrend structure. The key support zone below is located in the $3,920–$3,950 range, an area that coincides with previous dense trading activity and a psychological level. The resistance above is concentrated in the $4,050–$4,080 range. If the price cannot effectively break above this zone, gold is likely to maintain a weak consolidation pattern in the near term.
Observing the 4-hour chart, gold's short-term structure is bearishly consolidating, with the moving average system showing signs of turning down from a high level, indicating further weakening of short-term momentum. Multiple price rebounds have failed to re-establish a firm footing above $4,040, suggesting that selling pressure remains significant above. If the price continues to operate below the $4,020–$4,040 range, it could further test the support near $3,900. If data or a sudden geopolitical boost pushes the price above $4,050, it could potentially return to trade within the upper range of the consolidation in the short term.
In summary, gold's current price action lies in a dynamic balance between macro interest rate pressure and geopolitical safe-haven support, but the overall structure remains biased towards pressured consolidation. The Fed's policy expectation of "higher for longer" constitutes the core medium-term pressure, while Middle East tensions, though providing intermittent safe-haven support, lack a sustained escalation catalyst. The short-term market will closely watch the impact of U.S. employment data on the repricing of dollar and rate expectations. In the absence of clear fundamental breakout signals, gold is expected to remain within a range, biased towards weakness, with key focus on the directional decision between the $3,950 support and $4,050 resistance levels.