Arbitrage Tracking:

1) Price Spreads: On October 10, SC night session 1-3 month spread was -3.10 yuan/barrel, equivalent to -0.43 USD/barrel; Brent 1-3 month spread was 0.63 USD/barrel; WTI 1-3 month spread was 0.58 USD/barrel. SC night session minus Brent front month contract was -0.26 USD/barrel; SC night session minus WTI front month contract was 3.45 USD/barrel.

2) Arbitrage: ①Valuation: At 2:30 AM on October 10, Brent 2512 traded at 65.13 USD/barrel, SC 2601 traded at 448.1 yuan/barrel, with calculated theoretical price for SC 2601 at 464.1 yuan/barrel, showing a valuation deviation of -3.44%. Based on the 7-day moving average valuation range of [-5%, 0] as normal territory, it remains within normal valuation range. ②Profit: Calculated SC2601 delivered profit was -13.27 yuan/barrel, equivalent to -1.86 USD/barrel. ③Price Differential: SC2601-Brent2512 market differential was +0.31 USD/barrel, with theoretical differential at 2.17 USD/barrel, indicating market price differential below theoretical differential. (Note: Last week Brent front month was 2512; SC front month was 2601; M represents current October)

3) Summary:

① Regarding monthly spreads, last week after China's National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, Friday's Trump comments triggered sharp declines exceeding 4% in stocks, crude oil, copper and other core assets, marking the first major tsunami impact from great power competition in six months. Both domestic and international monthly spread structures weakened significantly, particularly domestic SC monthly spreads, which have fallen into negative territory.

② Regarding domestic-international price differentials, the SC-Brent cross-regional price differential based on 7-day moving averages continues to maintain weakness (chart rebounds merely reflect SC holiday closures, statistics based on pre-holiday data). Following the consumption peak season, global petroleum demand lacks highlights. Kpler tracking data shows Chinese refinery inventories declined by 12 million barrels in the last week of September, transitioning to destocking. Additionally, China's September imports were 9.6 million barrels/day, down 1.2 million barrels/day month-over-month, marking the year's lowest level. As time enters Q4, Chinese independent refineries face quota constraints leading to import reductions, while rising freight costs weaken Western arbitrage opportunities, potentially increasing future inventory dependence. Looking ahead, SC is directly linked to Middle East OPEC+ production increase impacts. Current supply-demand fundamentals remain relatively weaker than international markets, requiring patience for long price differential opportunities.

③ Short-term outlook: Although weekend Trump actions made investors aware of great power competition contradictions, with gradual reduction of mutual dependence between China and US being an irreversible trend, regarding Friday's renewed tariff threats from Trump, markets generally expect this to be similar to April's tariff war dynamics - short-term escalation followed by potential easing again. Trump's continued expectations for end-of-month meetings with Chinese leadership suggest trade friction remains subject to reversals. Future geopolitical and macroeconomic great power competition factors will continue bringing market volatility. As oil price centers shift lower, high volatility characteristics will persist, requiring attention to timing and rhythm.