Abstract

Blackstone Mortgage will release its quarterly results on February 11, 2026 Pre-Market.

Market Forecast

Consensus projections for the current quarter point to revenue of USD 113.77 million, an adjusted EPS estimate of USD 0.27, and EBIT of USD 60.49 million; the year-over-year forecast growth rates are 2.85% for revenue and 125.73% for EPS, with EBIT near flat at 0.08%. Forecasted metrics do not include gross profit margin or net margin guidance, but market models imply margins consistent with its recent pattern of high gross profit conversion and mid-40% net margin. The company’s main business is interest and related income, and outlook commentary centers on loan yields and credit performance. The most promising segment is interest and related income, which contributed USD 345.96 million last quarter, and, given the rate backdrop, is projected to be stable year over year with incremental improvement from asset yields.

Last Quarter Review

Blackstone Mortgage reported revenue of USD 98.90 million, a gross profit margin of 100.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 63.40 million, a net profit margin of 47.44%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.24, with year-over-year revenue down 8.72% and adjusted EPS down 38.46%. A notable highlight was the sequential inflection in net profit, reflected by quarter-on-quarter growth of 809.70%, underscoring stabilizing credit losses and lower non-cash charges. Main business performance was led by interest and related income at USD 345.96 million, partially offset by interest and related expense of USD -247.06 million and USD 33.73 million from owned real estate; year-over-year granularity was not disclosed in the report.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Interest and Related Income

For mortgage REITs like Blackstone Mortgage, interest and related income is the core driver of quarterly performance because asset yields and liability costs determine net interest spread and distributable earnings. With benchmark rates holding higher for longer into late 2025 and early 2026, floating-rate loan coupons are expected to remain elevated, supporting top-line interest income. The current-quarter revenue estimate of USD 113.77 million implies modest sequential improvement from USD 98.90 million, consistent with fewer non-recurring valuation charges and steadier accrual-based interest recognition. The gross profit margin of 100.00% last quarter reflects the accounting classification of interest income and pass-through expenses, and, combined with a net profit margin of 47.44%, signals resilient spread despite borrowing costs; the near-term focus is on repayment timing, loan modifications in office-heavy portfolios, and incremental drawdowns on construction loans, all of which influence recognized interest income and fee accruals each quarter.

Most Promising Business: Core Senior Loan Portfolio

The most promising revenue contributor remains the senior, floating-rate loan book concentrated in stabilized assets with strong sponsorship, which anchors interest and related income. In the last quarter, interest and related income of USD 345.96 million demonstrates the scale of loan coupon accruals across the portfolio even as financial statement revenue integrates netting and classification effects. For the current quarter, higher benchmark indices and sustained spreads could improve yield-on-book and fee collections, supporting the EPS estimate of USD 0.27 and EBIT of USD 60.49 million. While refinancing markets are gradually reopening, the pace of repayments may be measured; extended loan durations, wider spreads on refinancings, and sponsor equity cures can bolster ongoing interest income, though any unexpected non-accruals would immediately weigh on both recognized revenue and EPS.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Three factors are set to dominate near-term price action: credit performance on office exposures, capital costs and funding flexibility, and distribution sustainability relative to earnings. Credit updates around specific office and transitional assets will drive sentiment because non-accrual designations flow directly through to interest income and EPS. Funding costs tied to secured credit facilities and securitizations will influence net margin; any cheaper refinancing or liability management could widen spreads, while incremental hedging gains or losses may introduce volatility to EBIT. Dividend coverage is a major investor lens for mortgage REITs; with adjusted EPS trending near the current-quarter estimate of USD 0.27, investors will evaluate whether distributable earnings remain aligned with payout policy, and whether any portfolio actions—sales, restructurings, or selective impairments—alter run-rate coverage dynamics.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing view among recent institutional and sell-side commentary is cautiously positive, with a majority highlighting stabilization in credit metrics and the benefit of a higher-for-longer rate environment for floating-rate senior loans. Analysts point to the modest sequential lift implied by the USD 113.77 million revenue estimate and the EPS estimate of USD 0.27 as consistent with improving spread capture and reduced valuation noise. Several notes describe downside risks from office-related exposures yet argue that sponsorship strength and active asset management have limited incremental non-accrual formation in recent periods, positioning Blackstone Mortgage for steady distributable earnings. Well-followed firms emphasize that a gradual reopening in refinancing markets could support repayments at par and fee income, while liability management may lower funding costs. Overall, the consensus leans toward modest upside bias if credit outcomes and liability spreads track recent trends, with the market prepared to reward confirmation of stable net margins near the mid-40% range and EBIT around USD 60.49 million.