GTHT released a research report stating that OPEC+ increased production at its September 7 meeting and announced adjustments to the additional voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day starting from October 2025, with a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day. This year's oil supply and demand are expected to see a significant surplus. The focus going forward should be on the possibility of increased risk events during the approaching hurricane season and high operational periods, which could provide support for oil prices. In the medium to long term, oil supply is expected to become looser, with the oil price center declining. Expectations for two subsequent interest rate cuts are increasing, and domestic accommodative policies are also on the way.
GTHT's main viewpoints are as follows: OPEC+ increased production at its September 7 meeting and announced adjustments to the additional voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day starting from October 2025, with a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day. This year's oil supply and demand are expected to see a significant surplus. OPEC+ is further releasing expectations of competing for oil market share. Recent EU sanctions against Russia for the 18th time and US secondary tariffs on India's oil purchases show that European sanctions against Russia are more reflected in shipping costs, thereby affecting Russian oil export prices. In the short term, Russian oil exports have not been affected.
The weakness in oil prices after the peak season has also put pressure on shale oil rig counts. Major US oil and gas companies have opportunistically initiated large-scale layoffs, and global oil and gas capex is experiencing its first decline in four years. Behind the improved drilling costs and drilling efficiency lies the vulnerability of shale oil supply. Looking ahead, non-OPEC countries including the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana all have incremental capacity this year, with Brazil being the largest variable for non-OPEC crude oil supply increases.
From the demand perspective, August to November marks the global refinery maintenance period, and crude oil seasonally weakens after the peak season. The focus going forward should be on the possibility of increased risk events during the approaching hurricane season and high operational periods, which could provide support for oil prices. In the medium to long term, oil supply is expected to become looser, with the oil price center declining.
The introduction of a new round of key industry stable growth plans will promote further optimization of industry structure. The firm expects that after the Federal Reserve's 25bp rate cut shoe drops in September, expectations for two subsequent rate cuts will increase, and domestic accommodative policies are also on the way. The firm recommends polyester filament leaders Xinfengming and Tongkun Shares, which will fully benefit from further industry concentration improvement and leading position consolidation.
Additionally, against the backdrop of increasing profit pressure, overseas refining and ethylene capacity is being reduced, benefiting domestic low-cost ethylene leaders. The firm recommends Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical. Furthermore, the firm continues to recommend refining leaders Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which benefit from the "anti-involution" background. In the medium to long term, the firm recommends upstream low-valuation, high-dividend targets PetroChina and CNOOC, and recommends Kunlun Energy for its stable cash flow.