Abstract

TransMedics Group, Inc. is scheduled to release its quarterly results on February 24, 2026 Post Market, and consensus points to strong year-over-year expansion in revenue and earnings amid sustained margin quality and accelerating platform adoption.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter indicates total revenue of $155.72 million, up 41.20% year over year, with estimated EPS at $0.39, up 144.32% year over year, and estimated EBIT at $14.75 million, up 159.33% year over year; margin forecasts are not formally disclosed, but last quarter’s gross margin of 58.80% provides a reference for expectations on cost structure and pricing. The main business remains anchored by the Liver Care System, with momentum supported by procedure volumes and utilization; the company’s broader platform is expected to benefit from continued operational execution and improving mix. The most promising segment is the Heart Care System, which contributed $30.59 million last quarter and appears poised for further acceleration in 2026 as trial progress and regulatory updates translate into broader clinical adoption.

Last Quarter Review

TransMedics Group, Inc. delivered revenue of $143.82 million, a gross profit margin of 58.80%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $24.32 million, a net profit margin of 16.91%, and adjusted EPS of $0.66, with year-over-year growth of 32.24% for revenue and 450.00% for adjusted EPS. A key highlight was EBIT of $23.30 million, exceeding the prior estimate by $8.89 million, underscoring robust operating leverage from higher volumes and disciplined cost control even as sequential net profit growth declined by 30.33%. The main business performance was led by the Liver Care System, which generated $107.94 million last quarter; total revenue rose 32.24% year over year, indicating healthy platform adoption and steady contribution from Heart and Lung offerings across the network.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main Business: Liver Care System

The Liver Care System continues to anchor TransMedics Group, Inc.’s top line, supplying the majority of last quarter’s revenue at $107.94 million. The platform’s scale enables favorable unit economics, with prior-quarter gross margin at 58.80% indicating a cost base that benefits from volume density, stable pricing, and improving operational efficiency. For this quarter, the company’s forecast for total revenue growth of 41.20% year over year suggests the Liver Care System should remain the largest single contributor, supported by consistent utilization and workflow efficiency across centers that are already operating at meaningful throughput.

Sustained adoption at established hubs is likely to drive predictable case volumes, which, when paired with procedure scheduling and logistics execution, supports continuity of revenue recognition quarter over quarter. While sequential net profit contracted by 30.33% last quarter, the revenue base and gross margin level point to ample capacity for earnings delivery if mix and volume trajectory hold in line with expectations. EPS consensus at $0.39, up 144.32% year over year, implies that cost discipline and throughput should offset typical period-to-period fluctuations in operating expense and case timing. With EBIT estimated at $14.75 million and year-over-year growth expected at 159.33%, investors will be tracking whether the Liver Care System cohort maintains its efficiency profile, allowing incremental volumes to translate into proportionate operating income expansion.

The dynamics to watch include case conversion rates, scheduling density, and downstream logistics fidelity, each of which influences margin realization for the Liver Care System. Stronger scheduling patterns and fewer cancellations tend to reduce cost variability, while incremental scale enhances procurement effectiveness and fixed-cost absorption. If procedure volumes and utilization remain in line with prior-quarter patterns—where revenue supported substantial operating profit outperformance versus estimates—the Liver Care System will likely carry the consensus revenue and EPS forecasts, forming the bedrock of quarterly performance.

Most Promising Business: Heart Care System

The Heart Care System produced $30.59 million last quarter and appears positioned for acceleration over the next several quarters. Recent regulatory developments include full approval for the ENHANCE Heart clinical trial and prior clearance for the DENOVO Lung trial, both of which are expected to support broader adoption beginning in 2026. While those milestones principally inform multi-quarter visibility rather than near-term reported figures, they strengthen the clinical evidence pipeline and are relevant to hospital and program-level decision-making on utilization, training, and infrastructure commitment for heart procedures.

For the current quarter, the Heart Care System’s contribution should be assessed in conjunction with scheduled case flow, case mix, and geographic distribution of participating centers. When more centers progress from initial deployment to sustained utilization, the volume uplift typically generates incremental revenue with attractive marginal economics. Gross margin can benefit as heart procedure volumes achieve scale, provided consumable and service logistics remain aligned with expected case patterns. The estimated companywide revenue growth of 41.20% year over year suggests heart-related activity remains additive to overall momentum, and EBIT growth of 159.33% year over year points to the potential for margin-sensitive business lines to contribute more meaningfully as volumes improve.

Analytically, the focus is on operational execution: onboarding efficiency, procedure readiness, and post-procedure utilization feedback loops that inform continuous improvement. Centers that cycle through cases more routinely tend to normalize staffing and consumable planning, reducing variability and enabling pricing and reimbursement processes to be managed with fewer disruptions. As clinical trial execution progresses and data packages become available through 2026, the Heart Care System could benefit from improved clinician confidence and standardized workflows, which in turn may translate to higher throughput and better revenue capture.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

This quarter’s stock performance will likely be influenced by the interplay among volume growth, margin sustainability, and earnings conversion. On volumes, the revenue estimate of $155.72 million signals strong year-over-year momentum, and investors will look for delivery that is close to the forecasted path, as missed scheduling or logistics can produce disproportionate variability in reported revenue and margins. Gross margin continuity—benchmarking to last quarter’s 58.80%—is central to EPS outcomes; alignment of consumables, service support, and network logistics typically shapes margin realization, especially when volumes and case mix evolve over short periods.

EPS at $0.39, up 144.32% year over year, embeds assumptions around operating cost management and the efficiency of incremental revenue; the degree to which EBIT scales with revenue (estimated at $14.75 million, up 159.33% year over year) will be scrutinized to assess operating leverage. The prior quarter produced a notable EBIT outperformance of $8.89 million versus estimates, yet GAAP net profit fell sequentially by 30.33%, reflecting the importance of sequential dynamics such as timing, expenses, and one-off items. In the absence of explicit margin guidance for the current quarter, markets will interpret reported EPS and EBIT in relation to revenue and prior gross margin as validation of the company’s capacity to maintain profitability conversion while expanding volumes.

Additional drivers include the practical impact of ongoing clinical trials on utilization and program confidence. Full approval for ENHANCE Heart and the earlier clearance for DENOVO Lung add a layer of strategic visibility to 2026 and beyond, but near-term investor attention rests on how quickly such developments shape center-level activity this quarter. Evidence of continued ramp in liver, stable to improving throughput in heart, and groundwork for lung would reinforce the projected revenue trajectory and earnings conversion into the year. Clarity on case mix, scheduling consistency, and consumable replenishment cadence will also be assessed as indicators of financial performance predictability.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing view from covering institutions is bullish, with buy-rated opinions dominating and no recent bearish calls identified within the review window; the ratio is effectively 100% bullish versus 0% bearish among actionable ratings, though one hold stance exists and does not alter the majority conclusion. TD Cowen, led by analyst Josh Jennings, has reiterated a Buy rating with a $170.00 price target, reflecting confidence in near-term execution and multi-quarter growth prospects tied to expanding platform utilization and evidence generation. Jefferies, with analyst Young Li, has maintained a Buy rating and a $145.00 price target while also issuing supportive research commentary focused on the company’s technology, clinical pathway, and growth runway as platform adoption deepens.

In synthesizing these views, analysts underscore the strength of the current-quarter setup: revenue expected at $155.72 million, up 41.20% year over year; EPS at $0.39, up 144.32% year over year; and EBIT at $14.75 million, up 159.33% year over year. The buy-side thesis emphasizes margin quality anchored by last quarter’s 58.80% gross margin, and the potential for continued operating leverage as volumes scale on the Liver Care System and hearts move toward more routine scheduling. The sequential variability in GAAP net profit reported last quarter is acknowledged, yet consensus focuses on year-over-year performance and the operational consistency expected from established centers. Analysts also note that the clinical milestones for ENHANCE Heart and DENOVO Lung broaden the pipeline of evidence that can support program adoption, with 2026 shaping up as a year where these developments can influence utilization more tangibly.

The majority opinion anticipates that this quarter’s report will validate the earnings conversion implied by consensus forecasts. In particular, if reported gross margin trends remain near last quarter’s level and EBIT tracks closely to the $14.75 million estimate, the translation to EPS should align with the $0.39 expectation. Buy-rated institutions frame the quarter as an opportunity to confirm that the network can sustain higher throughput without compromising cost structure, reinforcing a path for double-digit revenue growth with meaningful profit expansion. The Liver Care System’s dominance in revenue mix serves as the backbone for this view, while clinical progress and operational discipline in the Heart Care System provide upside optionality to the multi-quarter narrative. Overall, the majority perspective concentrates on the company’s capacity to meet revenue and earnings forecasts and to exhibit consistency in margin quality, which together underpin confidence in the stock into the next phase of trial readouts and adoption dynamics.