According to Woofun AI, well-known analyst Benjamin Cowen has raised strong doubts about Bitcoin's rally above $80,000, calling it an illusion and reiterating his forecast that the market will weaken in the fourth quarter.

Cowen noted on his YouTube channel that Bitcoin in midterm years typically bottoms three times, in February, during the summer and in the fourth quarter, a pattern that held true in both 2018 and 2022.

He believes the current trend looks more like 2019 rather than a booming cycle marked by a 54% maximum drawdown and panic selling.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that although rising energy prices, yields and the U.S. dollar should have weighed on coin prices, BTC quickly rebounded after previously falling below $60,000 to $57,000, and Cowen now worries the upward move will repeat a similar trap, deceiving bulls above the range.

Cross-asset comparisons further support his bearish view.

Cowen likens the current situation to silver's false breakout in 2011 after several years of choppy trading.

Historical data shows that gold lows often appear in October to November, when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield peaks.

In addition, BTC's price action since the September rate hike closely resembles the situation in March 2022, when prices initially rose and then fell again within weeks, suggesting that even if recent performance is stronger than gold, the bottom may still be delayed until late in the fourth quarter.

Cowen refuses to accept an in-between outcome and insists that the cases of 2018 and 2022 prove that every midterm cycle is often accompanied by a final unexpected move before a true bottom.

Investors should not ignore historical patterns because of short-term new highs, and need to be wary of the risk of a sharp pullback in Q4.