GIGADEVICE (03986) shares continued their downward spiral, plunging over 10% in Hong Kong trading on Thursday.

The stock has now dropped nearly 70% from its all-time high of 1,248 Hong Kong dollars recorded last month. As of the time of writing, shares were down 9.84% at 407 Hong Kong dollars, with turnover reaching 24.74 billion Hong Kong dollars.

According to a recent price forecast from TrendForce, the contract price for traditional DRAM in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to rise by 13% to 18% quarter-over-quarter, while NAND flash contract prices are projected to increase by 10% to 15%. While these remain substantial gains, they represent a notable slowdown from the approximately 60% surge seen in the second quarter.

The deceleration is attributed to a bifurcation in the memory market, which is now splitting along enterprise and consumer customer lines. Consumer buying power may have reached its peak.

Morgan Stanley has indicated that the AI-driven semiconductor memory boom is approaching an inflection point, with memory contract prices expected to peak in the fourth quarter. The rate of earnings estimate upgrades for memory manufacturers has already slipped from a peak of 92% to 77%, and valuations for both SK Hynix and Samsung have retreated.

However, the cycle is expected to "elongate" rather than "collapse." The hard constraints on HBM supply and sustained AI capital expenditures remain key supports, while the fortunes of commodity DRAM and high-end memory are increasingly diverging.