Nickel futures in Shanghai rose during the afternoon session on June 15th. The most active July 2024 contract (2607) opened at 134,120 yuan per tonne, reaching an intraday high of 136,770 yuan and a low of 134,070 yuan before closing at 136,490 yuan. This represented a gain of 2,050 yuan, or 1.52%, with the contract's trading volume reaching 194,331 lots.



Market Price Data

According to market data, the price range for 1# nickel on June 15th was 135,400 to 137,700 yuan per tonne, with an average price of 136,550 yuan, marking an increase of 150 yuan from the previous day. Spot prices for 1# nickel in the Yangtze River region were quoted between 135,550 and 137,550 yuan per tonne, averaging 136,550 yuan, up 50 yuan. In Guangdong, spot nickel prices ranged from 137,500 to 137,900 yuan per tonne, with an average of 137,700 yuan, reflecting a significant rise of 600 yuan.



Key Macroeconomic Drivers

On the international front, a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions has led to a retreat in risk premiums, while a general recovery in U.S. equities has boosted risk appetite for commodities. Coupled with rising market expectations for monetary easing and a temporary weakening of the U.S. dollar, the valuation pressure on industrial metals like nickel has been significantly alleviated. Concurrently, market rumors about tighter nickel mining quotas in Indonesia have amplified expectations of a supply contraction in the primary nickel sector.

Domestically, a joint initiative by eleven government departments to promote the large-scale adoption of new energy heavy-duty trucks has set clear market penetration targets, directly stimulating demand in key downstream sectors such as high-nickel power batteries and automotive stainless steel. Furthermore, with the valuation of the A-share metals sector currently at low levels, capital is flowing into nickel-related stocks, providing additional support for nickel prices from a fund flow perspective.



Tight Balance in Raw Material and Industry Chain Supply

Supply of laterite nickel ore remains tight, with Indonesian policy changes being a key variable. Sulfide nickel ore resources are scarce, limiting capacity growth. The conversion to nickel matte is progressing slowly, while the supply of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) has sharply decreased due to high sulfur costs. Incremental supply from recycled nickel is also constrained by raw material and technological limitations. The industry chain is characterized by tightness upstream and scarcity in the midstream. Maintenance at some Indonesian production lines has further tightened supply. Downstream, new energy demand provides solid support, while the stainless steel sector is primarily consuming existing inventories.



Spot Market Activity: Price Rises Spur Hoarding and Restocking

The sharp rise in nickel prices has stimulated market sentiment. In the spot market, traders are increasingly holding back inventory, leading to a reluctance to sell. Downstream new energy companies are proactively restocking to lock in costs, causing the transaction price focus to rise rapidly in line with futures prices. However, stainless steel manufacturers, facing profit margin pressures, are purchasing more cautiously, and trading activity has gradually cooled as prices have climbed, resulting in an overall subdued performance. The current market sees only a small number of end-users with immediate needs restocking, while traders' willingness to offer has decreased simultaneously. Market participants' wait-and-see sentiment has noticeably intensified, leading to weak overall trading activity.



Short-Term Outlook: Key Variables and Price Forecast

Market focus will center on signals from the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, China's May industrial data from the National Bureau of Statistics, and the details of Indonesia's nickel export quota policies. It is anticipated that nickel prices will maintain a strong, range-bound oscillation between 135,000 and 138,000 yuan per tonne in the near term. Prices could potentially break above this range if industrial data proves positive or if Indonesian policies tighten further. Conversely, any renewed strength in the U.S. dollar would likely cap the upside for prices.