Abstract

StandardAero, Inc. will release Q4 2025 results on February 25, 2026, Post Market; current estimates point to revenue of $1.56 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.25, with investor attention centered on Commercial Aerospace performance, margin trajectory, and the recent secondary offering’s implications for near-term trading dynamics.

Market Forecast

For the quarter to be reported, estimates indicate revenue of $1.56 billion (up 13.94% year over year), EBIT of $154.36 million (up 38.06% year over year), and adjusted EPS of $0.25 (up 69.80% year over year); margin guidance for the quarter has not been formally provided. The company’s main business will be driven by solid activity in Commercial Aerospace, which last quarter contributed $848.60 million and 56.65% of total revenue, alongside supportive trends in Business Aviation and Defense & Helicopter. The most promising segment for near-term growth focus is Commercial Aerospace with last quarter revenue of $848.60 million; year-over-year data was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

StandardAero, Inc. reported revenue of $1.50 billion (up 20.35% year over year), a gross profit margin of 14.90%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $68.12 million for a net profit margin of 4.55%, and adjusted EPS of $0.19 (up 72.73% year over year). A notable financial highlight was the revenue beat versus the prior estimate, with a $75.74 million positive surprise, while GAAP net profit rose 60% quarter on quarter. Main business highlights included Commercial Aerospace revenue of $848.60 million (56.65% of total), Business Aviation revenue of $324.36 million (21.65%), Defense & Helicopter revenue of $273.23 million (18.24%), and Other revenue of $51.77 million (3.46%); year-over-year segment data was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Commercial Aerospace: Core Execution Drivers

Commercial Aerospace remains the operational anchor for the quarter, given its 56.65% revenue contribution last period and the scale efficiencies that come with that base. The current aggregate estimates for revenue and EBIT growth imply a favorable throughput and pricing mix relative to the year-ago quarter, which, in this segment, tends to translate into measurable margin leverage when volumes are sustained without outsized cost inflation. With last quarter revenue of $848.60 million, even modest sequential expansion in shop visit flow and component work can have an outsized impact on consolidated EBIT progression, consistent with the forecasted 38.06% year-over-year EBIT increase for the current quarter. A practical focus this quarter will be on scheduling efficiency and turnaround times, as these directly influence revenue recognition cadence and the ability to pull forward higher-value work scopes within the period. Management’s commentary and any disclosed backlog or order intake metrics will be closely watched in the report for signals on visibility into the next several quarters, especially if the company frames its execution priority around balancing capacity and cycle-time discipline. Although margin guidance was not provided, the combination of higher estimated revenue and EBIT suggests that mix or productivity could support incremental unit economics if labor and parts availability remain aligned with planned output; investors will likely parse gross-margin detail to infer how these operational factors are tracking.

Business Aviation: Near-Term Growth Potential

Business Aviation posted $324.36 million last quarter, a substantial revenue base that allows for targeted growth in the current period through disciplined scheduling and optimization of work-scope selection. In practical terms, this quarter’s profitability contribution from Business Aviation will hinge on the distribution of work between scheduled maintenance events and discretionary projects that tend to carry varied economics, with the latter often relying on customer timing preferences within a quarter. The corporate customer mix also matters because larger fleet programs can stabilize volume, which helps capacity planning and cost absorption, while one-off projects can bolster revenue but require careful slot management to avoid inefficiencies. Given the consolidated forecasts for higher revenue and EBIT year over year, even a balanced performance in Business Aviation can materially reinforce the overall earnings profile if pricing and throughput remain orderly. The division’s ability to align parts staging and skilled labor to peak periods can reduce idle time and support margin retention, especially when concurrent projects are sequenced to minimize rework and expedite completions. Investors will look for commentary on quote conversion rates and pipeline activity to infer if the segment’s momentum is consistent with the uplift implied by the company’s total revenue and EPS forecasts for the quarter.

Defense & Helicopter: Contribution Stability and Upside Pathways

Defense & Helicopter delivered $273.23 million last quarter, providing a diversified revenue stream that can stabilize quarterly outcomes when commercial cycles vary. This quarter’s contribution will be assessed on the timing and completion of contracted work packages, which typically have well-defined scopes and milestones; early or on-time completions can unlock revenue while minimizing cost overruns. With consolidated EBIT expected to rise 38.06% year over year in the current quarter, a consistent performance in Defense & Helicopter—avoiding schedule slips and maintaining project discipline—could underpin the earnings trajectory if commercial segments deliver as estimated. Execution on logistics and parts provisioning is central, since delays can cascade across projects and erode margin; conversely, smooth parts flow and skilled resource allocation can support the profitability footprint even without outsized revenue growth. Investors will parse disclosures on program progress and any material updates on multi-quarter commitments to understand the durability of this segment’s contribution and whether incremental capacity or capabilities are being prioritized to raise throughput over the coming periods.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The announced secondary offering of 50.00 million common shares at $31.00 introduces a technical element that can influence trading dynamics around the report, including potential near-term supply effects and changes in free float composition; the impact will likely be measured against reported results and forward commentary. Earnings-day variance versus estimates—particularly on revenue and EPS—will be a central determinant of short-term price reaction, as the market calibrates the forecasted year-over-year increases of 13.94% in revenue and 69.80% in EPS against actual delivery and guidance elements. Margin disclosure will matter: while gross and net margins were not forecasted for the quarter, investors will analyze any changes relative to last quarter’s 14.90% gross margin and 4.55% net profit margin to gauge whether operational mix and cost discipline are supporting or constraining profitability. Management’s forward-looking statements around the 2026 outlook, which it indicated will accompany the detailed Q4 and full-year release, will also shape sentiment; clarity on capacity planning, investment priorities, and backlog conversion will be key for assessing whether the current quarter’s performance is a springboard for sustained growth. Finally, any update on capital allocation considerations—such as balance sheet flexibility following the offering—can frame expectations for strategic initiatives, though this will likely be interpreted through the lens of the quarter’s execution and profitability.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing view among covering institutions is constructive, with a bullish-to-neutral ratio skewed toward Buy ratings; in the current set of recent opinions, Buy recommendations outnumber Holds, reflecting majority optimism. CIBC reaffirmed a Buy rating with a $38.00 price target, highlighting confidence in the company’s earnings trajectory and prospective cash-generation profile as operational scale supports forecasted year-over-year growth in revenue and EPS. Susquehanna also maintained a Buy rating with a $34.00 target, pointing to positive near-term catalysts embedded in the quarter’s estimates—particularly the forecasted 13.94% revenue increase and 69.80% EPS expansion—that suggest the earnings setup is favorable if execution aligns with plan. Truist Financial reiterated a Buy rating with a $35.00 target, underscoring the importance of consistent performance in core operations and the potential for margin leverage, which echoes the quarter’s 38.06% estimated year-over-year EBIT uptick. While UBS and Bank of America Securities have cited reasons to remain Neutral/Hold, the majority Buy cohort emphasizes the expected step-up in profitability metrics this quarter and the significance of clarity on the forward outlook for maintaining positive momentum. Across supportive notes, the common thread is that incremental improvement at scale—seen in last quarter’s $1.50 billion revenue and the beat versus estimates, and now in the $1.56 billion revenue forecast—can compound into stronger absolute earnings, provided margins hold steady or improve. That framing aligns with investor focus on the mix and productivity elements within Commercial Aerospace and the consistency of execution across Business Aviation and Defense & Helicopter, where achieving planned throughput tends to convert into tangible earnings delivery. In aggregate, the majority view anticipates that disciplined operational management will allow the company to translate volume into earnings in the quarter to be reported, while guidance details for 2026 will be pivotal in validating the durability of the trend implied by the current forecasts.