GLMS SEC issued a research report stating that due to intensified industry competition affecting the company's sales volume and profitability, LI AUTO-W (02015) is expected to achieve operating revenues of 123.9/190.3/220.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-over-year growth rates of -14.3%/53.6%/16.0% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 6.74/12.40/14.85 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of -16.1%/84.0%/19.8% respectively, and EPS of 3.15/5.79/6.94 yuan per share. The "Buy" rating is maintained.

Key points from GLMS SEC are as follows:

Event: Li Auto released its second quarter financial data. Li Auto delivered 111,000 vehicles in 2025Q2, up 2.3% year-over-year, achieving total operating revenue of 30.2 billion yuan, up 16.7% quarter-over-quarter and down 4.5% year-over-year. In 2025Q2, Li Auto achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.09 billion yuan, with non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.46 billion yuan.

Q2/Q3 Deliveries and Revenue Under Short-term Pressure Due to Intensified Competition

Li Auto's cumulative deliveries in 2025Q2 reached 111,000 vehicles, up 2.3% year-over-year and 19.6% quarter-over-quarter. Total operating revenue for 2025Q2 was 30.25 billion yuan, up 4.5% year-over-year and 16.7% quarter-over-quarter. Vehicle sales revenue for 2025Q2 was 28.89 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-over-year and up 17.0% quarter-over-quarter. The year-over-year decline was mainly due to product structure adjustments and financial service subsidies.

Li Auto launched the pure electric SUV Li L8 in July, with CLTC range of 720 kilometers, priced at 339,800 yuan. Deliveries began in August, with expected deliveries of 8,000 to 10,000 units by the end of September.

Looking ahead to 2025Q3, Li Auto expects deliveries of 90,000-95,000 vehicles and revenue of 24.8-26.2 billion yuan, down 42.1% to 37.8% year-over-year, mainly due to intensified industry competition. Revenue pressure is expected to ease in Q4 with the launch of new models.

Strong Gross Margin Resilience with High R&D Investment Ensuring AI Progress

Li Auto's gross margin for 2025Q2 was 20.1%, up 0.6 percentage points year-over-year and down 0.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The automotive business gross margin was 19.4%, up 0.7 percentage points year-over-year and down 0.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The overall strong gross margin performance was mainly due to the company's strong cost control capabilities and relatively comprehensive Li-mos production management system.

Li Auto's R&D expenses and SG&A expenses for 2025Q2 were 2.81 billion yuan and 2.72 billion yuan respectively, with R&D expense ratio and SG&A expense ratio at 9.3% and 9.0% respectively. Li Auto maintains high R&D investment, and VLA progress acceleration may become a key step for Li Auto to accelerate AI deployment.

Gradual Improvement of Pure Electric Ecosystem May Ensure Future Pure Electric Sales

As of August 31, 2025, Li Auto has 543 retail centers nationwide, covering 156 cities, and 536 after-sales service centers and authorized body and paint centers, covering 222 cities. Li Auto has put into operation 3,190 Li Super Charging stations nationwide, with 17,597 charging piles.

Risk Warning: The speed of intelligent technology implementation and sales realization capability may fall short of expectations; passenger car price wars may affect subsequent sales volume.