As the Lunar New Year Gala approaches, the red packet battle among internet giants is reaching its peak. This year's competition features an AI-focused lineup including Alibaba's Qianwen, Tencent's Yuanbao, ByteDance's Doubao, and Baidu's Wenxin, competing alongside traffic platforms such as JD.com, Douyin, and Kuaishou.

According to statistics, the total officially announced red packet amount has surpassed 8 billion yuan, with individual red packets commonly capped at around 10,000 yuan. While platforms like ByteDance's Doubao, Alipay, and Hongguo Short Drama have not disclosed specific amounts, if gifts and other benefits are included, the total investment in this year's red packet campaign could reach 10 billion yuan.

However, some experts have expressed skepticism, noting that users attracted solely by red packets typically show a seven-day retention rate below 20%, with the 30-day retention rate potentially dropping under 5%. Red packets may answer why users try a platform but fail to address why they stay.

On January 25, Tencent fired the first shot in this year's red packet war by announcing a 1-billion-yuan cash giveaway through its Yuanbao app starting February 1, with individual red packets reaching up to 10,000 yuan. Baidu quickly followed suit, launching a 500-million-yuan red packet campaign via its Wenxin assistant from January 26 to March 12. On February 2, Alibaba's Qianwen unveiled a 3-billion-yuan "Spring Festival Treat" plan, offering users free purchase cards for various services.

By February 12, JD.com joined the competition with a 3-billion-yuan red packet and prize event scheduled for Lunar New Year's Eve. Incomplete statistics show that major internet companies have committed over 8 billion yuan in red packets this year, with individual red packets generally capped at 10,000 yuan. Including undisclosed amounts from other platforms, the total investment may reach 10 billion yuan.

Compared to previous years, when few companies disclosed their red packet amounts, this year's competition has intensified significantly. The shift reflects the ongoing battle for "AI access" and "AI adoption tickets" driven by generative AI development. Most major players are using AI applications like Doubao, Qianwen, Yuanbao, and Wenxin as their primary red packet distribution channels, while only a few like JD.com and Kuaishou remain focused on traditional internet platforms.

The strategies behind these red packet campaigns vary significantly. Alibaba's 3-billion-yuan campaign through Qianwen specifically targets consumption scenarios within its ecosystem, aiming to integrate AI into users' daily spending habits. Tencent's 1-billion-yuan giveaway encourages users to experience Yuanbao's chat and creation features, though its approach remains largely focused on user acquisition rather than innovative engagement.

Baidu's 500-million-yuan campaign, while smaller than others, clearly aims to enhance AI functionality within its main app. ByteDance, though not disclosing specific amounts, has secured partnership with the Spring Festival Gala and plans interactive activities through Doubao, potentially positioning it as the biggest beneficiary.

Industry experts recall how WeChat's 2015 red packet campaign revolutionized China's payment market by adding 200 million bank card bindings within three months. While companies hope to replicate this success in the AI era, early data shows mixed results. Alibaba's Qianwen reported 120 million orders processed through its platform six days after launch, while Tencent's Yuanbao saw a 30-fold increase in AI image generation usage.

However, when the excitement of red packet subsidies fades, genuine product competitiveness becomes crucial for long-term user retention. According to angel investor and AI expert Guo Tao, users attracted solely by red packets typically show low retention rates. Shanghai University of Finance and Economics professor Hu Yanping added that the effectiveness of red packet campaigns in the AI era may be limited compared to the mobile internet period.

The recent success of products like Seedance2.0, which gained popularity through technological merit rather than红包 incentives, suggests that investing in user needs and product capabilities may ultimately prove more valuable than participating in blind red packet competitions. After the marketing noise subsides, what truly retains users is product design that addresses real needs and demonstrates solid technical strength.