MIXUE GROUP shares hit a low of 201.2 Hong Kong dollars per share during intraday trading on July 10, 2026, breaching the initial public offering (IPO) price of 202.5 Hong Kong dollars and setting a fresh all-time low. This milestone comes just one year and four months after its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 3, 2025, according to Wind Information.

At its debut, MIXUE GROUP was among the brightest stars in the Hong Kong market. In March 2025, it set a record for Hong Kong IPOs with an oversubscription ratio of 5,324 times, freezing a massive 1.84 trillion Hong Kong dollars in funds. On its first trading day, shares surged 43.21% to close at 290 Hong Kong dollars, pushing the company's market capitalization above 100 billion Hong Kong dollars. By June 5, 2025, the stock had peaked at 618.5 Hong Kong dollars, with a market cap exceeding 200 billion Hong Kong dollars. However, from that peak, the shares entered a prolonged downtrend. As of the close on August 7, the company's market capitalization stands at approximately 80 billion Hong Kong dollars, representing a loss of over 100 billion Hong Kong dollars from its peak. From being hailed as a "new consumer gem" to falling below its IPO price, MIXUE GROUP has experienced a dramatic roller-coaster ride on the capital markets.

What factors are driving investor sentiment downward?

According to publicly available financial reports and prospectus data, MIXUE GROUP has shown consistent revenue growth from 2021 to 2025: operating revenue rose from 10.351 billion yuan in 2021 to 33.560 billion yuan in 2025, with year-over-year growth rates of 31.2%, 49.6%, 22.3%, and 35.2% from 2022 to 2025, respectively. Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders increased from 1.910 billion yuan in 2021 to 5.880 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit growth rates of 4.6%, 57.1%, 39.8%, and 32.7% over the same period. Despite this sustained high growth, investor enthusiasm has waned, with the stock price declining since June 2025 and briefly dipping below the IPO price. The fundamental reason for the share price decline lies in the weakening of the narrative that drove initial investor excitement: "continuous store expansion → supply chain economies of scale → high-speed earnings growth." This logic is now showing signs of strain.

A March report from J.P. Morgan highlighted that MIXUE GROUP's multi-year high-growth phase is nearing its end, and the company is transitioning from a growth-stage to a value-stage company. The bank significantly downgraded its rating from "Overweight" to "Underweight," slashing its target price from 521 Hong Kong dollars to 270 Hong Kong dollars per share.

Store counts and market saturation

From 2021 to 2025, MIXUE GROUP's total store count expanded from approximately 20,000 to 59,823, but the development paths in domestic and overseas markets have diverged significantly. In 2022, the total number of stores grew by about 45% year-over-year to roughly 29,000, followed by growth rates of 24.7%, 28.5%, and 28.7% in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. Store expansion is the foundation of MIXUE GROUP's business model. Domestically, the number of stores surged from 32,180 in 2023 to 55,356 in 2025, with year-over-year growth rates of 29.2% in 2024 and 33.1% in 2025, dominating the company's overall footprint. However, third-party estimates suggest the theoretical capacity limit for the domestic market is around 61,000 to 70,000 stores, meaning the ceiling is approaching. As store density increases, average revenue per store and franchisee profitability are coming under pressure. Since MIXUE GROUP's revenue structure heavily relies on selling raw materials and equipment to franchisees, a slowdown in expansion would also slow the improvement of supply chain economies of scale.

Overseas markets have faced more direct setbacks. The number of overseas stores grew from 3,973 in 2023 to 4,895 in 2024 (up 23.2% year-over-year), but in 2025, the company posted its first annual net decline, with a net reduction of 428 stores, ending the year with 4,467 stores, down 8.7% from the previous year. In Japan, the ambitious plan to open 1,000 stores by 2028 has been drastically scaled back, with only 4 stores remaining as of June 2026. In Hong Kong, the store count has shrunk from 9 to 5. Even in its core markets of Vietnam and Indonesia, MIXUE GROUP has begun actively closing underperforming stores. The "domestic production, overseas delivery" supply chain model struggles to achieve cost efficiency when store density is low. The mismatch of a low-price model with high-cost markets, combined with differing consumer habits, creates structural barriers to international expansion.

Strategic pivot: From growth to quality

Facing these dual pressures, MIXUE GROUP has actively pressed the "slowdown button" in 2026. Newly appointed CEO Zhang Yuan stated clearly during a performance briefing that the company will actively slow the pace of new store openings in the domestic market in 2026, reallocating more resources to support and improve the profitability of existing stores. Simultaneously, the group has planned approximately 1.6 billion yuan in strategic investments for supply chain upgrades, with a core focus on transitioning from room-temperature fruit jams to frozen fresh fruit and from room-temperature milk to cold-chain fresh milk. This initiative, internally called the "True Fresh Pure" quality upgrade plan, signals a fundamental shift from a "scale-driven" to a "quality-driven" strategy.

Record store closures and a turning point

In 2025, MIXUE GROUP closed 2,527 franchise stores, a sharp 57.1% increase year-over-year and 4.4 times the absolute number of closures in 2021, marking a five-year high. This phenomenon is driven by a combination of factors: intensified competition among the same brand within a highly saturated domestic market, strain on store-level profitability leading to passive exit by franchisees, and structural active closures of overseas stores, especially in high-cost markets. The rising number of closures likely signals a turning point from "scale expansion" to "inventory optimization." The old logic of using new store openings to "dilute" the closure rate is failing, and the franchisee ecosystem may face more severe profitability challenges at the store level.

New growth engines: Lucky Cup and Fresh Beer Fulujia

In the search for new growth curves, the freshly ground coffee brand "Lucky Cup" is considered the most core "second engine." Lucky Cup expanded from approximately 5,000 stores to a scale of 10,000 stores in just 10 months. In 2026, Lucky Cup's strategy has shifted to "quality and efficiency improvement": new store openings for the year will be strictly limited to fewer than 2,000, with the second half of the year limited to fewer than 1,000. The strategic focus will shift to core business districts in prefecture-level cities and above. The group plans to invest approximately 1.6 billion yuan in the supply chain upgrade of the main MIXUE GROUP brand, with total capital expenditure for the group planned at around 1.8-2 billion yuan, including specific marketing and equipment upgrade funding for Lucky Cup.

The third growth curve targets the freshly brewed beer sector. In October 2025, MIXUE GROUP acquired a 53% stake in Fresh Beer Fulujia for approximately 297 million yuan. Following the acquisition, Fulujia has been integrated into MIXUE GROUP's national supply chain, with production costs expected to decrease by 15% to 20% and transportation loss rates falling from the industry average of 8% to under 3%. As of May 2026, Fulujia's store count has surpassed 3,000, achieving rapid expansion under MIXUE GROUP's ownership. Additionally, MIXUE GROUP has opened more than 2,000 square-meter flagship stores across multiple locations in China, exploring a combined "beverage + cultural products + experience" business model. However, previous experimental forays into the breakfast business have been fully discontinued, indicating that cross-sector exploration is not without challenges.

Conclusion

From a scale-driven to a quality-driven approach, MIXUE GROUP is undergoing a profound strategic transformation. The question of whether this combination of measures—Lucky Cup's efficiency focus, Fresh Beer Fulujia's rapid expansion, the main brand's quality upgrade, and strategic deepening of overseas markets—can open up new growth space in an era of limited expansion will be the most critical topic for this freshly-made beverage giant, which operates nearly 60,000 stores.