Abstract

Agree Realty will report fiscal results on February 10, 2026 Post Market; this preview outlines expected revenue, profitability, and EPS trends alongside institutional sentiment and segment dynamics across net-lease retail properties.

Market Forecast

Consensus for Agree Realty’s current quarter points to revenue of $185.50 million, gross profit margin near 88.00%, net profit margin around 28.00%, and adjusted EPS of $0.47, implying year-over-year growth of 18.63% for revenue and 9.77% for EPS. Management’s forward indicators and industry run-rate imply stable occupancy and contractual rent escalators supporting mid-to-high teens revenue growth and EBIT of $96.78 million, with continued expansion of its high-margin net-lease portfolio. The main business is rental income from net-lease retail properties, projected at $185.50 million with double-digit year-over-year growth and resilient cash flows under long-term leases. The most promising segment remains rent from newly acquired and developed properties, a driver expected to contribute the bulk of incremental revenue growth as acquisition yields and escalators compound.

Last Quarter Review

Agree Realty’s prior quarter delivered revenue of $183.22 million, gross profit margin of 88.01%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $52.12 million, net profit margin of 28.44%, and adjusted EPS of $0.45, with revenue up 18.72% year over year. A key highlight was EBIT performance reaching $87.26 million, exceeding internal forecasts and showing solid operating leverage from portfolio scale. Main business rental revenue accounted for $183.19 million, demonstrating dependable growth from contracted rents and a stable tenant base.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Net-lease retail rental income

Agree Realty’s core driver continues to be rental income from its diversified net-lease retail portfolio. The financial forecast indicates revenue of $185.50 million and EBIT of $96.78 million, with implied gross margin holding near 88.00%, underscoring the structural efficiency of the triple-net model where tenants cover taxes, insurance, and maintenance. Contracted lease escalators and recently completed developments are expected to underpin low-double-digit year-over-year revenue growth. Given the last quarter’s net profit margin at 28.44%, a similar range this quarter would be consistent with the steady spread between portfolio yield and funding cost, barring non-cash fair value or transaction-related items. Leasing metrics are likely to remain resilient due to high occupancy and a concentration in essential and experiential retail categories that have shown enduring foot traffic and sales. Portfolio churn tends to be low, which supports visibility into forward cash flows and protects the gross margin. The company’s scale also enables disciplined capital allocation as it weighs acquisition cap rates against the cost of capital, aiming to preserve net operating income growth without overextending the balance sheet.

Most promising business: Incremental rent from acquisitions and developments

The most sizable growth contribution should come from newly acquired and developed properties that add to base rent and diversify geographies and tenants. As these assets are brought online and rent commences, they deliver immediate NOI uplift, which flows through to EBIT given limited operating expense drag in a triple-net structure. The company’s forecasted revenue growth of 18.63% year over year for the quarter is consistent with a robust recent acquisition and development cadence, alongside embedded contractual rent bumps on the existing base. Pipeline conversion remains the swing factor. If acquisition yields remain attractive relative to the company’s funding channels, incremental rent could outpace internal expectations, offering upside to EBIT and EPS. Conversely, a less favorable spread between cap rates and financing costs could temper net additions, resulting in a more measured growth trajectory. Monitoring rent commencements, dispositions, and re-tenanting outcomes will be essential for gauging the pace and durability of growth into the next two quarters.

Stock price drivers this quarter

The first determinant is updated guidance around acquisition volume and funding mix, which influences forward EPS sensitivity to interest rates and equity issuance. Any commentary on 2026 acquisition targets, development deliveries, and cap rate trends will help investors refine run-rate revenue and NOI assumptions. The second determinant is balance sheet positioning—specifically leverage levels, fixed-rate debt proportion, and maturities—which tie directly to net interest expense and net profit margin stability. The third determinant is tenant health and leasing outcomes. Detailed disclosures on rent collections, lease rollover, and re-leasing spreads can guide expectations for same-property NOI growth and occupancy risk. Clear evidence that credit exposure remains balanced toward investment-grade or higher-quality counterparties would support a constructive view on cash flow predictability, while any isolated tenant restructuring could introduce near-term noise without materially altering portfolio resilience.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent published views, the majority skew positive, emphasizing revenue growth in the high teens, margin stability near the high-80s gross margin range, and EPS growth approaching high-single digits. Well-followed institutions highlight the defensive attributes of long-term net leases and the visibility from contractual escalators as reasons to expect steady top-line and EBIT expansion through the quarter. The consensus majority view is bullish, citing favorable acquisition economics and disciplined capital allocation as supportive of continued FFO and EPS accretion.