After a historic plunge in gold and silver prices, many are questioning whether the bull market has concluded. While short-term volatility is expected, the current trend may be one of consolidation and decreasing volatility rather than a definitive end to the upward trajectory.

Three key factors support this view. First, the conditions that typically mark the end of a major bull market are not yet in place. Historically, significant precious metals rallies—such as those in the 1970s and early 2000s—ended when policies were introduced to curb speculation, such as raising margin requirements, or when monetary policy turned notably hawkish. While margin requirements for gold and silver have recently been increased, there is insufficient evidence of a hawkish shift in monetary policy. Interest rate cuts remain the expected direction. Moreover, given high US debt levels and the current easing cycle, it is premature to anticipate a new bull market for the US dollar.

Second, the recent market volatility has been relatively contained. Unlike past broad market disruptions, the sharp moves in gold and silver have not spread significantly to stock, bond, or currency markets. If liquidity issues remain isolated, funds may temporarily flow out of precious metals into other assets but could return once volatility subsides.

Third, from a broader commodity cycle perspective, the current phase may still be in its early stages. If 2020 is considered the starting point of a new commodity supercycle, energy and agricultural commodities have yet to see significant price increases compared to precious and industrial metals. If this cycle continues, gold and silver are likely to participate in the broader rally, even if their price gains are more moderate.

In summary, while the recent decline in gold and silver has been dramatic, it may not signal the end of the bull market. Instead, prices may enter a period of lower volatility and consolidation. Investors should monitor where capital flowing out of precious metals might go next—potentially into undervalued commodities or assets like crude oil and bonds, which may benefit from shifting market dynamics.