Abstract

Celsius Holdings, Inc. will report fourth-quarter results on February 26, 2026 Pre-Market, with investors watching revenue momentum, margin resilience, and EPS trends as consensus points to strong year-over-year growth.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, forecasts indicate total revenue of $640.83 million, with year-over-year growth of 96.78%, EBIT of $101.13 million with year-over-year growth of 177.997%, and EPS of $0.21 with year-over-year growth of 88.456%. Forecasts do not explicitly provide gross profit margin or net profit margin for the quarter; however, market expectations emphasize continued scale benefits and operating leverage. The main business highlights remain concentrated in domestic distribution, which is expected to benefit from expanded retail placements and velocity gains; international is anticipated to continue recovering as distribution ramps. The most promising segment is domestic, underpinned by retail expansion and broader brand awareness, while international represents a secondary growth engine poised to accelerate from a smaller base.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Celsius Holdings, Inc. recorded revenue of $725.11 million (actual year-over-year growth of 172.86%), a gross profit margin of 51.34%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -$61.01 million with a net profit margin of -8.41%, and adjusted EPS of $0.42 (actual year-over-year growth not disclosed in tool data). The quarter’s key highlight was EBIT of $182.79 million, which exceeded the prior forecast by $74.38 million and reflected year-over-year growth of 57.87%. Main business performance was led by domestic operations at $24.07 million in revenue and international operations at $12.10 million; domestic accounted for 66.55% of last quarter’s revenue, while international contributed 33.45%.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Domestic Distribution and On-Premise Velocity

Domestic remains the core earnings driver this quarter, supported by sustained shelf expansion at national retailers and continued velocity gains in convenience and mass channels. Management has previously highlighted strong throughput in U.S. accounts, which typically translates into solid revenue conversion given Celsius’s broad flavor range and favorable unit economics. From a profitability standpoint, the domestic channel tends to benefit from scale, aiding contribution margins through improved freight efficiency and promotional discipline. The quarter’s expectations of 96.78% revenue growth imply that domestic sell-through dynamics are resilient, with repeat purchase trends and new points-of-distribution adding incremental volume.

Marketing investments tied to awareness and trial are expected to keep supporting demand without overwhelming margins, given a more data-driven approach to promotions. Retailer mix will matter: gains at large-box chains and higher-traffic convenience outlets should reduce per-unit distribution costs while increasing overall throughput. Pricing architecture appears stable; Celsius historically leans on mix upgrades and limited-edition flavors to nudge realized price without broad list price actions, which helps maintain consumer acceptance. The key swing factor is replenishment cadence as retailers adjust inventory levels; a smoother flow favors consistent weekly sales and limits shipment volatility into quarter-end.

Most Promising Business: International Expansion

International continues to show promise as the company builds scale in select markets, particularly in regions where energy drink adoption is rising and distribution partnerships have matured. The prior quarter’s revenue split indicates international at roughly one-third of the total, giving it ample room to contribute incremental growth as awareness and availability improve. Operationally, initial costs in new geographies can weigh on margins, but as volumes build, the company typically benefits from improving logistics density and local promotional effectiveness. Over the coming quarter, international performance should progressively align to the brand’s core domestic playbook, with a focus on high-velocity SKUs and retailer partners capable of fast in-store expansion.

The quarter-on-quarter rhythm will be influenced by rollout timing and the depth of activation behind new accounts. Seasonal factors may impact trial rates, but the broader trajectory is tied to distribution ramping and cultural fit of flavor profiles. Currency effects are a consideration, though underlying volume trends typically dominate near-term revenue outcomes. The potential for co-packing and localized supply can further mitigate cost-to-serve over time, laying the foundation for more balanced profitability as the international business scales.

Stock Price Drivers: Revenue Scale, Margin Trajectory, and EPS Delivery

This quarter’s stock performance is likely to hinge on three intertwined pillars: top-line scale, gross-to-operating margin conversion, and the quality of EPS delivery relative to expectations. With revenue forecast at $640.83 million and EPS at $0.21, investors are sensitive to whether scale is translating into operating leverage consistent with prior momentum. The absence of forecasted gross margin guidance means the reported gross profit margin will be scrutinized against last quarter’s 51.34% baseline; a modest improvement could suggest favorable mix and logistics efficiency, whereas compression could raise questions about promotion intensity or input costs.

Net margin will be watched closely given last quarter’s GAAP net loss and a net margin of -8.41%. While GAAP can be affected by non-operational items, the relationship between EBIT and EPS this quarter should provide insight into margin normalization and cost discipline. Any visibility on SG&A scaling, marketing cadence, and freight costs will help investors gauge durability of EPS. Finally, inventory health and retailer replenishment patterns can influence reported results; consistent pull-through tends to support cleaner revenue recognition and steadier margin outcomes, which in turn can stabilize valuation multiples.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish opinions dominate recent commentary, with most institutions positively inclined toward near-term revenue acceleration and operating leverage. Analysts highlight the sizable year-over-year revenue forecast of $640.83 million, the anticipated 177.997% uplift in EBIT, and expected EPS of $0.21 as supportive of ongoing growth narratives. Well-followed sell-side voices point to domestic momentum and international expansion as dual engines for scale, noting that prior-quarter EBIT outperformance set a constructive baseline for margin conversion. The bullish camp underscores improving distribution breadth, resilient velocities, and brand equity gains as reasons for confidence in meeting or exceeding near-term forecasts.

Institutional analysis emphasizes the importance of sustaining gross margins around the 50% threshold. Positive expectations are framed around steady logistics costs, disciplined promotional spend, and potential mix tailwinds from higher-velocity SKUs. The prevailing view anticipates that the company can deliver EPS in line with or modestly above the $0.21 forecast, contingent on stable freight and effective marketing productivity. In this context, the tilt of opinions remains in favor of continued top-line expansion translating into healthier operating performance, with valuation support hinging on consistent execution across domestic and international channels.