HKEX (00388) shares slipped nearly 3% during Tuesday trading, with the stock last seen down 1.92% at HK$398.4 on turnover of HK$1.352 billion.

CICC published a research note forecasting HKEX will report a second-quarter net profit of HK$5.04 billion, representing a 13% year-on-year increase but a 3% quarter-on-quarter decline. The exchange is scheduled to disclose its quarterly results on August 19, with the brokerage estimating second-quarter revenue will rise 12% year-on-year and fall 1% quarter-on-quarter to HK$8.11 billion. Excluding investment income, core fee-based revenue is expected to grow 26% year-on-year and 2% sequentially to HK$6.95 billion.

The report highlighted that spot trading activity continues to strengthen, with both the Hong Kong market and northbound ADT hitting new highs. This is projected to drive a 26% year-on-year increase in core fee-based revenue for the quarter, alongside a 2% sequential rise. However, with short-end interest rates climbing while long-end rates decline, coupled with a pullback in market volatility, CICC expects investment returns to face some pressure.

In a separate note, Jefferies noted a marked improvement in the quality and demand for HKEX IPOs, citing a lower rate of offerings trading below their issue price, stronger backing from institutional investors, and manageable lock-up expiration risks. The firm also pointed to rotation in AI-related stocks and the recent selloff in the Korean equity market as creating new entry opportunities. Jefferies has raised its earnings forecasts for HKEX for 2026 and 2027 by 5% and 6%, respectively, to HK$18.579 billion and HK$19.42 billion, reflecting expectations of higher average daily turnover, stronger IPO fundraising volumes, and improved net interest income.