市场对美联储今年降息的预期正在悄然升温。最新数据显示，交易员目前认为年底前利率下降的概率约为34%，较一周前14%的预期概率实现显著跃升。
尽管市场共识仍倾向于美联储将维持利率稳定——毕竟决策者正应对中东冲突引发的能源冲击及其带来的通胀跳涨，但上周达成的停火协议及随之回落的能源价格，正促使部分投资者重新评估通胀压力的持续时间和波及范围。
美银最新基金经理调查同样释放出货币政策乐观信号。在4月2日至9日受访的全球投资者中，约58%预计美联储将在未来12个月内启动降息。
该调查其他关键发现包括： -- 基金经理预计年底原油价格将达每桶84美元 -- 全球投资者情绪降至去年6月以来最悲观水平，该情绪指标综合现金持仓、股票配置和全球增长预期得出 -- 70%的受访者认为经济衰退可能性较低
（本文源自道琼斯新闻专线） 2026年4月14日09:23 ET（13:23 GMT）
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