Guotai Haitong Securities has released a research report stating that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with its rate dot plot indicating the possibility of two additional rate cuts in 2025. This positive development has boosted market risk appetite, though gold prices may face short-term volatility and pressure. Regarding industrial metals, with overseas liquidity easing and expanded domestic policy operating space, industrial commodity supply-demand dynamics are improving marginally, potentially creating opportunities for sector positioning.

Guotai Haitong's main viewpoints are as follows:

**Cycle Assessment:** The September Federal Reserve rate cut of 25BP brought rates to the 4.00%-4.25% range, with dot plot predictions suggesting two potential additional cuts in 2025, meeting market expectations. Combined with recent decent U.S. economic data performance, market concerns about recession have noticeably eased. As market risk appetite improves and some long positions take profits, gold prices may face volatility and pressure. For industrial metals, the U.S. rate cut provides marginal overseas liquidity easing while expanding domestic policy operating space, awaiting continued release of macroeconomic positives. Additionally, the traditional peak season is gradually approaching with pre-holiday stockpiling phases, leading to continued increases in processing capacity utilization rates for copper, aluminum and other industrial goods. With frequent supply-side disruptions, supply-demand dynamics are strengthening marginally, potentially creating positioning opportunities for the sector.

**Precious Metals:** U.S. rate cut benefits realized, gold prices face volatility pressure. The Federal Reserve's September meeting announced a 25BP reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, meeting market expectations. The Fed's rate dot plot shows expectations for 2 additional cuts in 2025, while raising forecasts for U.S. economic growth. Furthermore, recent U.S. retail sales exceeded expectations month-over-month, and initial jobless claims for the week of September 13 also declined beyond expectations, gradually reducing market sentiment regarding U.S. recession concerns. In the short term, as some long positions take profits and market risk appetite rises, gold prices may face volatility and pressure. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, U.S. federal government debt risks persist, the dollar's status faces challenges, and under global monetary system restructuring, gold still has opportunities for sustained performance.

**Industrial Metals:** Supply-demand dynamics strengthening marginally, pullbacks create positioning opportunities. Macroeconomically, Federal Reserve rate cuts have resumed, with expectations for two additional cuts totaling approximately 50BP in 2025. Domestic August macroeconomic data showed overall stable performance with continued policy effects, potentially expanding future domestic policy operating space. Market liquidity easing and improved risk appetite will benefit industrial metal prices. On the supply-demand front, the traditional peak season phase is beginning, with processing capacity utilization rates for copper, aluminum and other industrial goods continuing to rise, plus increased pre-holiday stockpiling demand. Meanwhile, supply-side disruption events are frequent, with supply-demand dynamics expected to strengthen marginally. Short-term sector pullbacks due to overseas macroeconomic positive realizations may provide good positioning opportunities.

**Risk Warning:** Downstream demand weaker than expected, significant supply-side releases, Federal Reserve rate cut progress falling short of expectations, etc.