As we move into 2026, the global precious metals market is navigating a complex landscape shaped by multiple competing forces. Analysis indicates that while sustained sovereign demand in 2025 provided a solid foundation for gold prices, contradictory signals from the U.S. job market and opaque macroeconomic policies are making price forecasts for the new year increasingly intricate.
From the perspective of sovereign reserves, the focus of global central banks' asset allocation remains stable. Data shows that net global central bank gold purchases reached 328 tonnes in 2025, with Poland leading the way by adding 102 tonnes. Although this total represents a slight decrease from the 345 tonnes purchased in 2024, strategic replenishment by countries such as Kazakhstan and Brazil continues to underscore gold's status as a core reserve asset. In contrast, while U.S. employment data showed an unexpectedly strong gain of 130,000 jobs in January of last year, downward revisions for the entirety of 2025 exceeded one million. This situation, characterized by surface-level strength and underlying concerns, has caused the 2-year Treasury yield to fluctuate around 3.5%, significantly reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve taking aggressive interest rate actions in the near term.
In the silver market, the supply-demand imbalance is undergoing a structural shift due to elevated prices. As spot silver premiums surged, the market is transitioning from being driven by speculation to being influenced by physical metal liquidation. Related data indicates that the value of silver coins minted before 1965 has nearly tripled over the past year. This substantial profit potential has fully activated the secondary supply market in North America, with a continuous flow of long-dormant family heirlooms and sterling silverware re-entering the market. This "scrap effect," triggered by high prices, is effectively alleviating the extreme shortage of physical supply and shifting the short-term focus of silver trading from end-use industrial demand to liquidity management within investment portfolios.
The current market state can be viewed as a period of consolidation following a sharp rally. While gold prices are experiencing a seasonal correction near the $5,000 per ounce level and silver is oscillating around $76.215 per ounce, this movement primarily reflects consolidation due to scarce liquidity during the holiday period. Analysis suggests that until the Federal Reserve's credibility is firmly re-established and macroeconomic employment data becomes clearer, the strategic allocation value of precious metals will continue to outweigh their potential for short-term speculation. From a professional asset management standpoint, investors are advised to closely monitor the marginal price pressure on silver from secondary supply sources while keeping a watchful eye on revisions to non-farm payrolls data to discern the genuine pricing logic amidst significant volatility.