International oil prices have experienced a significant decline. As of April 15, Brent crude fell below $100 per barrel to $95.25, while U.S. crude, including West Texas Intermediate, dropped below $90 per barrel, with New York crude quoted at $89.10. This drop occurred just two days after prices were above $100 per barrel on April 13.
The primary reason for this decrease is the high likelihood of a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran, coupled with signals from Iran suggesting a more flexible stance. These developments have renewed investor optimism about a potential end to the conflict.
On the U.S. side, former President Donald Trump mentioned in an interview that talks with Iran could take place "within the next two days" in Pakistan. Iran, despite an inconclusive first round of talks, has continued to express willingness to negotiate with the U.S. based on international law. Additionally, reports indicate that Iran is considering suspending shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid confrontation following a U.S. maritime embargo.
Suspending Strait of Hormuz transit would be a prudent move for Iran, as sending ships out under the embargo would be highly risky. Similarly, pursuing further negotiations is a wise strategy for Iran, which currently needs respite and recovery more than the U.S. or Israel.
According to reports, Iranian government estimates suggest that military strikes by the U.S. and Israel have caused approximately $270 billion in damages to Iran. With Iran's 2024 GDP estimated at $436.91 billion, the conflict has already cost the equivalent of about 60% of its GDP. Presenting this data in future talks could be a strategic move by Iran to highlight the scale of losses incurred.
Strategically, Iran has demonstrated three key capabilities throughout the conflict: influence over the Strait of Hormuz, the ability to pressure U.S. forces to withdraw from Persian Gulf bases, and the capacity to target energy infrastructure across the region—as seen in retaliatory strikes following an Israeli attack on the South Pars gas field. These demonstrations have contributed to U.S. caution and are a key factor making a second round of negotiations possible.
Whether these talks will yield major results remains uncertain. The recent drop in oil prices could reflect market anticipation of peace or simply speculative trading. Capital markets are unpredictable, and true motives are often unclear.
There is hope that a second round of talks will proceed soon and lead to a successful outcome.