Abstract

FirstEnergy will report its quarterly financial results on February 17, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes last quarter’s performance, the company’s latest guidance, and the market’s consensus on revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS, highlighting the most important business drivers and investor debates heading into the print.

Market Forecast

Based on the company’s current-quarter forecast, revenue is projected at $3.16 billion, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 22.25%, with EBIT estimated at $717.16 million and EPS at $0.55, implying a year-over-year decline of 21.90%; margins consensus points to a softer profile this quarter, though detailed gross margin and net margin forecasts are not provided. Management’s segment framework indicates distribution, integrated operations, and independent transmission as the core revenue contributors, with the company focused on regulated earnings visibility and prudent capital deployment this quarter. Independent transmission appears positioned as the most resilient segment by revenue stability; last quarter it delivered $0.49 billion, though year-over-year growth figures are not available.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, revenue was $4.15 billion, gross profit margin was 61.60%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $0.44 billion, net profit margin was 10.63%, and adjusted EPS was $0.83, with year-over-year adjusted EPS down 2.35%. A key highlight was net profit growth on a sequential basis, with quarter-on-quarter net income up 64.55%, reflecting improved cost controls and rate case execution. Main business revenue mix featured distribution at $2.02 billion, integrated operations at $1.65 billion, and independent transmission at $0.49 billion; year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core regulated operations and distribution

Distribution remains the company’s largest revenue base and primary earnings engine this quarter, supported by the regulated nature of its service territories and ongoing rate base investment. With revenue last quarter at $2.02 billion, near-term performance will be tied to weather-normalized demand trends and the cadence of approved rate mechanisms. The projected revenue contraction this quarter reflects both seasonality and a more conservative load backdrop, with earnings leverage expected to rely on operating discipline. Margin sensitivity to purchased power costs and storm-related expenses is an important watch, particularly given normal-to-colder seasonal conditions in some service areas.

Integrated operations and cross-segment synergies

Integrated operations contributed $1.65 billion last quarter and serve as a stabilizer for consolidated revenue, though the company’s forecast implies a softer environment year over year. The key variables are fuel and purchased power costs, as well as the timing of recovery mechanisms embedded in regulatory constructs. While EBIT is guided lower year over year, cost containment and incremental regulatory clarity could sustain an adequate margin profile. The tug-of-war between near-term demand softness and cost recovery cadence will define whether the segment can offset pressure elsewhere in the portfolio.

Independent transmission and rate-base growth

Independent transmission delivered $0.49 billion last quarter and is poised to be the most resilient segment into the quarter, with earnings underpinned by tariff frameworks and multi-year capital plans. The segment’s regulated returns provide greater earnings visibility relative to volumetric businesses, which should cushion the consolidated margin profile. Investors will monitor capital deployment pace, potential project milestones, and any commentary on regulatory timelines that could influence forward growth rates.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter

The stock’s near-term reaction will hinge on the interplay of revenue contraction and margin defense, with the market looking for confirmation that gross margin can remain above 60.00% and net margin around low double-digits despite lower top-line. EPS delivery versus the $0.55 forecast will be crucial given last quarter’s positive surprise on adjusted EPS. Regulatory updates, progress on rate proceedings, and any disclosure on capital structure or financing costs could shift sentiment quickly, as higher rates would pressure interest expense while constructive outcomes could support valuation.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent commentary, the majority view is cautious, emphasizing the projected year-over-year declines in revenue and earnings for the current quarter and the possibility of mixed margin outcomes. Several well-followed institutions highlight regulated earnings visibility as a supportive factor, yet they flag headwinds from weather normalization, load softness, and cost-recovery timing. The prevailing stance expects in-line to slightly below-consensus results, with a preference for clarity on regulatory milestones and capex pacing as potential catalysts for a re-rating if execution remains steady.