Japan's tourism appeal has halved during the Spring Festival period, with South Korea and Thailand emerging as the preferred choices. Visa-free policies are becoming the core driver of growth in outbound travel.

The Spring Festival has always been a peak period for outbound travel, though popular destinations change each year. For the 2026 Spring Festival, travel to Japan, which previously held a top spot, has seen its popularity cut in half. South Korea and Thailand have become the most popular alternatives.

Data from the first week of the travel rush confirms this trend. The busiest international routes were Shanghai Pudong to Bangkok Suvarnabhumi, Shanghai Pudong to Seoul Incheon, and Qingdao Jiaodong to Seoul Incheon.

South Korea and Thailand are competing for the top spot in outbound travel. South Korea benefits from its geographical proximity and high flight frequency, particularly forming a one-hour travel circle between cities in Shandong province, such as Qingdao and Yantai, and Seoul. Meanwhile, Thailand is intensifying its marketing efforts on top of its visa-free policy to counter negative impacts from previous safety incidents.

"Visa-free access directly stimulates travel demand," stated the General Manager of Scoot China. He noted that Chinese citizens can now travel visa-free to Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, enabling many to purchase last-minute tickets to Southeast Asia and visit multiple destinations. The booking window has also shortened significantly, with 60% of travelers now buying tickets within 30 days of departure.

Asian neighbors like South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia, which share cultural similarities with China, have traditionally formed the foundation of Chinese outbound travel. Recently, with countries like Russia and Turkey joining the visa-free camp, destination choices have become more diverse, intensifying competition for Chinese tourists.

As visa-free and consumption-boosting policies continue to be optimized, authorities predict bidirectional growth in inbound and outbound travel during this Spring Festival holiday. Daily average passenger traffic through national ports is expected to exceed 2.05 million, a 14.1% increase compared to the previous year.

The peak period for outbound travel is forecasted for February 15. Major airports like Shanghai Pudong, Guangzhou Baiyun, Beijing Capital, Chengdu Tianfu, and Shenzhen Bao'an are expected to see significant daily passenger volumes.

**Japan's Decline, South Korea and Thailand Fill the Void**

In late January, Chinese authorities issued travel advisories for Japan, citing social unrest and high risks of earthquakes in some areas, advising citizens to avoid travel there during the Spring Festival.

While Japan was traditionally the top destination due to its proximity, its popularity began declining significantly from late 2025, dropping out of the top three. As overall outbound demand remained strong, other destinations quickly moved to capture the market share. Consequently, South Korea and Thailand replaced Japan as the most popular destinations for the holiday.

Data shows that during the first week of the travel rush, passenger traffic between China and Japan fell by approximately 54% year-on-year, with the number of operating flights decreasing by about 49%. Routes from Shanghai to Osaka, Nagoya, and Tokyo, Beijing to Osaka, and Nanjing to Osaka saw the largest drops in flight numbers.

While the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan halved, travel to South Korea is expected to grow by over 20%. Reports suggest Chinese visitors to South Korea during the holiday may surpass 250,000, a significant 25% increase, with total spending estimated to exceed $330 million.

This growth is driven by geographical advantages, with flight times from cities like Shanghai and Qingdao to Seoul taking only about an hour, creating a true "one-hour travel circle." Additionally, relaxed visa policies for Chinese tour groups and a favorable exchange rate for the South Korean Won have enhanced the appeal for shopping and leisure, boosting travel热度.

Thailand is also actively competing for tourists. Data from the Thai Ministry of Tourism and Sports showed that for the week of February 2-8, China was the top source of visitors, with arrivals exceeding 569,000 and showing growth for over five consecutive weeks.

Following safety incidents in early 2025, Thai tourism was significantly impacted, leading to mass cancellations of flights and tour groups. For the full year 2025, Chinese visitor numbers to Thailand fell sharply by 35% to 3.31 million. Recently, Thailand has emphasized its visa-free policy for smoother entry and launched targeted marketing campaigns for holidays like the Lunar New Year, aiming to help Chinese tourists "rediscover Thailand."

"Due to low temperatures in many parts of China during the Spring Festival, warm-climate countries like Thailand have become one of the most popular international choices," said the Deputy General Manager of Spring Tour.

**Southeast Asia as the Foundation**

The 2026 Spring Festival features a record-long 9-day public holiday, leading to explosive growth in cross-border tourism. Southeast Asia, home to the largest overseas Chinese communities and rich festive atmospheres, remains the top choice for Chinese celebrating the New Year abroad.

Despite short-term fluctuations in Thailand, Southeast Asian nations like Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia have consistently formed the core market for Chinese outbound travel.

"The Spring Festival is traditionally a peak season for Singapore," noted the Scoot executive, citing strong festive spirit and pleasant weather. To accommodate the surge, Scoot is increasing flights between China and Singapore, targeting a 90% passenger load factor.

Data from Tongcheng Travel indicates that Southeast Asian destinations occupied half of the top ten spots for international flight bookings during the holiday, including Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Ho Chi Minh City, and Bali.

With the upgrade in mass travel consumption, enthusiasm for outbound travel surged among users from non-first-tier cities, especially in central and western regions. Observers noted significant growth in traveler numbers from second- and third-tier cities like Xi'an, Changsha, Shantou, and Kunming, who travel directly to Singapore or use it as a transit hub to other Southeast Asian destinations.

Reports suggest Chinese tourist arrivals in Malaysia during the 2026 Spring Festival are expected to grow 30% to 50% year-on-year, potentially making Malaysia one of the biggest beneficiaries globally for the holiday.

Malaysia, offering both natural and cultural attractions, has designated 2026 as its tourism year and is hosting a series of promotional events to attract more Chinese and global visitors.

Beyond the key visa-free destinations of Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, even Southeast Asian countries without visa-free policies, like Vietnam and Indonesia, have seen substantial growth in Chinese tourist numbers.

Vietnam's tourism authority recently stated that the country is becoming the fastest-growing destination for international tourists in Southeast Asia, leveraging its renowned cuisine, diverse landscapes, and ancient history. A series of major tourism infrastructure projects set for completion in 2026 are preparing Vietnam for a new wave of visitors.

**New Visa-Free Destinations: Russia and Turkey**

The extended 9-day holiday, combined with clever leave-taking strategies enabling longer trips, has spurred explosive growth in long-haul outbound travel. Data shows that by February 9, over 220,000 tickets for international routes during the holiday had been booked, with daily averages up approximately 8% year-on-year.

Following Russia's announcement of visa-free travel for Chinese citizens effective December 2025, one travel platform reported a nearly 150% increase in flight bookings to Russia for the winter break, leading growth among international destinations. Another platform's data showed Russia ranked first among popular destinations for packaged tours, with an 11-day, 9-night tour covering Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Murmansk being a top seller.

Winter activities like snow viewing, seeing the Northern Lights, and exploring Moscow's cityscape are key attractions for Russian tourism. Even before the visa-free policy, interest in Russia was rising, with hotel bookings surging 43% year-on-year in 2025.

Following Russia, Turkey officially implemented visa-free travel for Chinese citizens starting January 2. Industry insiders optimistically estimate that the number of Chinese tourists to Turkey could surpass one million in the first year of the policy.

Reports indicate that as winter is a low season for Turkish tourism, industry professionals are eagerly anticipating the Spring Festival to welcome more Chinese visitors. Merchants are intensifying Chinese language training and accelerating the adoption of mobile payment systems to enhance the visitor experience.

Statistics show Turkey led long-haul destinations with a 320% year-on-year increase in search热度 for the Spring Festival, alongside a 2.3-fold jump in hotel bookings. Hot air balloon rides in Cappadocia and the exotic charm of Istanbul are particularly sought after.

It is evident that visa-free policies are becoming the core engine for outbound travel growth. During the 2026 Spring Festival, a host of Asian neighbors and visa-free countries are welcoming wave after wave of Chinese tourists.