SpaceX Faces Critical Flight Test Tonight That Could Determine Future Rocket Strategy

Deep News
4 hours ago

SpaceX is no longer accepting long-term cargo launch orders for its Falcon 9 rocket, as the company shifts its focus entirely to developing its massive Starship spacecraft, which is still in the testing phase.

According to sources, the company has begun rejecting requests from satellite operators for dedicated Falcon 9 launches scheduled after 2028. Additionally, the Falcon 9 rideshare program, which allows multiple satellite customers to share a single rocket, is no longer accepting new reservations.

There are also reports that SpaceX has halted production of certain disposable components for the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, including the upper stage that carries payloads into orbit.

This decision to stop taking new orders and turn away customers is a major gamble, with the outcome depending entirely on the success of the Starship program. The Starship is scheduled to conduct its 13th test flight tonight, after a launch attempt last Thursday was abruptly canceled due to multiple engines failing to ignite properly.

The primary goals for tonight's nighttime launch include successfully lifting the booster off the ground, completing the stage separation, and then returning the booster to a precise landing zone in the Gulf of Mexico for recovery. Beyond that, the Starship is tasked with deploying 20 third-generation Starlink satellites while in orbit, before executing a controlled re-entry into the atmosphere and splashing down in the Indian Ocean.

A fully successful test flight tonight would serve as a powerful catalyst for the company's stock price. This is the first Starship test flight since SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026. Since its public debut, the stock has fallen by approximately 25%.

On July 22, 2026, at the SpaceX South Texas launch site in Cameron County, Texas, spacecraft 40 was stacked atop booster 20, preparing for the 13th test flight.

While investors are hoping for a flawless launch, Wall Street is taking a more cautious approach overall.

In a research note sent to clients before last Thursday's canceled launch, JPMorgan analyst Seth Seifman wrote, "The 13th test flight will generate a wealth of data for analysis. Over the long term, for SpaceX to achieve its goals of dozens of Starship launches next year, hundreds by 2028, and over a thousand annually in subsequent years, the process will inevitably involve both progress and setbacks."

This test flight will provide more data on rocket hardware performance, but analysts are more focused on the cost and time required to refurbish the second stage of the spacecraft. The spacecraft experiences intense heat stress during re-entry, and the efficiency of its post-recovery refurbishment will directly determine the commercial viability of the program.

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