During Tuesday's Asian trading session, the USD/JPY pair showed a slight recovery after hitting multi-month lows. Yen bears remained cautious amid market expectations of potential intervention by Japanese authorities, while steady dollar performance kept USD/JPY capped near 154.50.
Market participants continue to monitor uncertainties surrounding the timing of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) next rate hike, limiting the yen's short-term appreciation potential. The summary of opinions from the BoJ's October policy meeting revealed divisions among officials regarding the timing of further tightening.
BoJ official Junko Nakagawa emphasized a cautious approach to policy decisions, reinforcing expectations that Japan may delay rate hikes or even maintain large-scale stimulus. Under the new administration of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, prolonged accommodative policies could continue weighing on the yen.
Meanwhile, the nearing resolution of the US government shutdown further reduced demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset. Economic data released last Friday showed slowing Japanese household spending, with weak private consumption potentially dampening demand-driven inflation and exacerbating BoJ policy uncertainty.
Japanese Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi noted that high inflation is eroding household purchasing power, and the government will implement measures to mitigate price pressures. However, a weaker yen continues to drive up import costs and consumer prices.
In the US, the Senate cleared a key procedural hurdle on Sunday, advancing formal debate on restoring government operations. This supported investor sentiment and indirectly boosted dollar demand.
Rising US Treasury yields also underpinned the dollar, helping USD/JPY hold at elevated levels. However, market bets on a potential Fed rate cut in December somewhat limited the greenback's upward momentum.
"BoJ policy uncertainty and yen intervention expectations jointly constrain the yen's appreciation, keeping USD/JPY capped near resistance above 154.50. A breakout could open the path toward 155.00 and higher," said a forex strategist.
On the daily chart, USD/JPY consolidated above the 9-day EMA, with short-term bulls maintaining control. Oscillators remain in positive territory, far from overbought conditions. A sustained break above 154.50 could fuel further gains toward the psychological 155.00 level, with intermediate resistance at 155.60 and eventually 156.00.
Conversely, a drop below Asia's low of 154.00 may signal a retest of the 153.50 zone, with strong support at 153.00. Further downside could extend toward 152.10.
USD/JPY remains influenced by policy uncertainty and risk sentiment, likely consolidating in the near term. BoJ policy signals and Fed rate cut expectations will continue driving short-term movements as markets await clearer fundamental cues.