Significant news has emerged from the Middle East once again, causing sharp fluctuations across various asset classes. In early trading, crude oil opened with a substantial drop. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil prices had fallen by over 4%.
Regarding gold and silver, both precious metals experienced upward momentum. At the time of writing, spot gold had risen over 1.4%, breaking through $4,500 per ounce, while spot silver had increased by more than 2.3%. COMEX gold surged nearly 3%, and COMEX silver climbed over 4%.
The three major US stock indices closed lower across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.18% to 46,124.06 points, the S&P 500 index declined 0.37% to 6,556.37 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.84% to 21,761.89 points. Most Chinese concept stocks traded lower, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.43%. Among individual stocks, Hesai Technology fell over 14%, FinVolution Group dropped more than 4%, Autohome declined over 3%, Bilibili decreased more than 3%, and Qifu Technology fell nearly 3%.
The primary factor influencing market movements remains the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. According to reports, the US government has presented Iran, via Pakistan, with a 15-point proposal to end the conflict, covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues. Reportedly, key US demands include: Iran dismantling its existing nuclear capabilities, committing not to develop nuclear weapons, prohibiting uranium enrichment on its soil, transferring approximately 60% of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, dismantling nuclear facilities such as those at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, and allowing comprehensive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Simultaneously, the US also demands that Iran cease support for allied regional militias, prohibiting the provision of funding, command, and weaponry, and restricting the scale and range of its ballistic missile program to defensive purposes only, while ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open.
In exchange, Iran could potentially receive a full lifting of international sanctions, US support for its civilian nuclear program development, and the removal of the "snapback" sanctions mechanism. It is understood that the US is considering pushing for a one-month ceasefire to facilitate further negotiations on these terms. This proposal is being promoted by advisors to former President Trump, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
Former US President Donald Trump stated that the US has already "achieved victory" in its actions against Iran, claiming Iran has been "completely defeated," and described the current situation not as an "evenly matched conflict" but one where Iran has been "militarily significantly weakened." Trump stated that Iran "has no navy, no air force, and lacks effective defense capabilities," asserting absolute US advantage in related operations. He criticized some media portrayals of the situation as a "stalemate," calling them "inaccurate." He also indicated that the US possesses the capability to further strike key Iranian infrastructure but emphasized a desire to end the conflict through negotiation to avoid further losses. Trump stated, "This conflict can end," but did not provide a definitive judgment on the final agreement's outcome. On the nuclear issue, Trump reiterated that Iran "will not have nuclear weapons," stating that previous US military actions had "destroyed its nuclear capability." He also mentioned that had he not withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal, Iran might have "already obtained nuclear weapons."