For stock investors, authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive analyst research reports help uncover potential thematic opportunities. September's economy stabilized on a month-on-month basis. On September 30, the National Bureau of Statistics released the manufacturing, construction and services PMIs, which rose by 0.3, 3.4 and 0.9 points respectively from the previous month, all returning to expansion territory. The autumn peak season for industrial production, improved construction conditions, the concentrated implementation of the "six networks" construction and policy-based financial instruments, and increased holiday travel activity were the main drivers of the improvement. At the same time, the "strong supply, weak demand" pattern remained evident, with firms' order backlogs declining and both new orders and new export orders below prior readings, which was also the backdrop for the "929" policy package.
Key views
September's economy stabilized on a month-on-month basis. On September 30, the National Bureau of Statistics released the manufacturing, construction and services PMIs, which rose by 0.3, 3.4 and 0.9 points respectively from the previous month, all climbing back into expansion territory. In the report "Reading the Current Fundamentals and the Policy Package from September PMI and BCI," we provided a detailed analysis: the autumn peak season for industrial production, improved construction conditions, the concentrated implementation of the "six networks" construction and policy-based financial instruments, and increased holiday travel activity were the main drivers of the improvement. At the same time, the "strong supply, weak demand" pattern remained evident, with firms' order backlogs declining and both new orders and new export orders below prior readings, which was also the backdrop for the "929" policy package.
The September manufacturing PMI rose 0.3 points month-on-month to 50.1. The PMI production index was 51.7, above the prior 50.4; the new orders index was 50.5, below the prior 50.6; the new export orders index was 50.0, below the prior 50.1; and the order backlog index was 46.0, below the prior 46.7. The September construction business activity index rose 3.4 points month-on-month to 50.3. The September services business activity index rose 0.9 points month-on-month to 50.2.
The Ministry of Finance said it will strengthen supervision and guidance for regions with slower spending progress
On October 1, Finance Minister Lan Fo'an published a signed article in Qiushi magazine titled "Implementing a More Proactive Fiscal Policy Precisely and Effectively," stressing the need to "anchor to the full-year economic and social development goals and go all out to ensure the implementation of key fiscal tasks." Notably, the article pointed out the need to "strengthen supervision and guidance for regions with slower spending progress and clear bottlenecks." The article "Implementing a More Proactive Fiscal Policy Precisely and Effectively" proposed to "anchor to the full-year economic and social development goals and go all out to ensure the implementation of key fiscal tasks." Specific measures include "reasonably accelerating spending progress, strengthening supervision and guidance for regions with slower spending progress and clearing bottlenecks"; and "studying and introducing incremental policies such as arranging the use of local government debt carryover quotas to improve local general public budget support capacity and support the expansion of effective investment."
The Qiushi article focused on employment issues
On October 1, Qiushi magazine published an article titled "Striving to Solve the Most Basic Livelihood Issue of Employment." After analyzing a series of real challenges in China's current employment work, the article further proposed specific measures such as "making high-quality full employment a priority goal of economic and social development," "improving the employment impact assessment mechanism for major policies, major projects and major productive forces layout," "stabilizing employment for key groups such as college graduates, migrant workers and people with employment difficulties," and "encouraging entrepreneurship to drive employment." "Striving to Solve the Most Basic Livelihood Issue of Employment" mentioned that "employment is the most basic livelihood issue." The article noted that China's current employment work faces a series of real challenges, including "external shocks transmitting to the domestic economy; a clear trend of an aging workforce and greater difficulty in re-employment; a youth labor force employment peak that will persist for a long time; prominent pressure from employment structure adjustments brought by technological change; and challenges to workers' rights protection arising from flexible employment." On how to promote high-quality full employment, the article proposed: "We must make high-quality full employment a priority goal of economic and social development; improve the employment impact assessment mechanism for major policies, major projects and major productive forces layout; workers' quality is the foundation for improving employment quality; stabilize employment for key groups such as college graduates, migrant workers and people with employment difficulties; encourage entrepreneurship to drive employment; improve the mechanism for determining wages, reasonable wage growth and payment guarantees; and improve the rights protection system for flexible workers and workers in new employment forms."
Residents' activity radius and consumption grew steadily during the National Day holiday
In the first five days of the National Day holiday (October 1 to October 5), the arithmetic average of the daily year-on-year growth in cross-regional personnel flows across society was 0.4%, with the rates for the first to fifth days at -1.9%, 1.2%, -0.4%, 1.3% and 1.7% respectively. Among them, the average year-on-year changes in railway passenger volume, highway personnel flows, waterway passenger volume and civil aviation passenger volume were 12.4%, -0.4%, 7.5% and -1.6% respectively, with railway passenger volume posting notable year-on-year growth. Big data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that in the first three days of the National Day holiday, foot traffic and turnover at 78 pedestrian streets (business districts) under key monitoring rose 3.4% and 5.3% year-on-year respectively.
On October 1, 2026 (the first day of the National Day holiday), cross-regional personnel flows across society totaled 329.495 million person-times, up 50.2% month-on-month and down 1.9% from the same period in 2025 (October 1, the first day of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday; the same basis applies below). Among them, railway passenger volume, highway personnel flows, waterway passenger volume and civil aviation passenger volume changed by 9.0%, -2.8%, 7.2% and 0.5% year-on-year respectively.
On October 2, 2026 (the second day of the National Day holiday), cross-regional personnel flows across society totaled 305.504 million person-times, down 7.3% month-on-month and up 1.2% from the same period in 2025 (October 2, the second day of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday; the same basis applies below). Among them, railway passenger volume, highway personnel flows, waterway passenger volume and civil aviation passenger volume changed by 7.7%, 0.8%, 9.4% and -2.8% year-on-year respectively.
On October 3, 2026 (the third day of the National Day holiday), cross-regional personnel flows across society totaled 303.568 million person-times, down 0.6% month-on-month and down 0.4% from the same period in 2025 (October 3, the third day of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday; the same basis applies below). Among them, railway passenger volume, highway personnel flows, waterway passenger volume and civil aviation passenger volume changed by 6.1%, -0.8%, 6.3% and -5.8% year-on-year respectively.
On October 4, 2026 (the fourth day of the National Day holiday), cross-regional personnel flows across society totaled 305.39 million person-times, up 0.6% month-on-month and up 1.3% from the same period in 2025 (October 4, the fourth day of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday; the same basis applies below). Among them, railway passenger volume, highway personnel flows, waterway passenger volume and civil aviation passenger volume changed by 10.8%, 0.8%, -4.2% and -1.4% year-on-year respectively.
On October 5, 2026 (the fifth day of the National Day holiday), cross-regional personnel flows across society totaled 303.337 million person-times, down 0.7% month-on-month and up 1.7% from the same period in 2025 (October 6, the sixth day of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday; the same basis applies below). Among them, railway passenger volume, highway personnel flows, waterway passenger volume and civil aviation passenger volume changed by 28.5%, 0.1%, 18.7% and 1.7% year-on-year respectively.
Big data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that in the first three days of the National Day holiday (October 1 to 3), foot traffic and turnover at 78 pedestrian streets (business districts) under key monitoring rose 3.4% and 5.3% year-on-year respectively. Data from Tongcheng Travel showed that booking interest for domestic long-haul flights over 1,200 kilometers rose 34% year-on-year. Data from Ctrip showed that the share of cross-provincial travel during the National Day holiday is expected to jump to 82%.
Holiday sales data show that the "929" real estate policy has had initial effects
On September 29, the Ministry of Finance, the central bank and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Implementing the Interest Subsidy Policy for Residents' Home Purchase Loans," implementing interest subsidies nationwide for residents using commercial loans to buy their first homes. In the first six days of the National Day holiday (October 1 to 6), the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities rose 0.4% year-on-year, significantly better than the year-on-year declines in August and September. Policy effects were notable in some regions; data from Hubei's housing and construction department showed that new commercial housing sales in Wuhan from October 1 to 3 rose more than 10% year-on-year. On September 29, the Ministry of Finance, the central bank and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Implementing the Interest Subsidy Policy for Residents' Home Purchase Loans," providing a 1% interest subsidy nationwide for residents using commercial loans to buy their first homes (total price no higher than 1.5 million yuan and area no more than 120 square meters), for a term of no more than 5 years and a maximum scale of 1 million yuan. From October 1 to 6, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 60,000 square meters, up 0.4% year-on-year; the average daily transaction area in August and September fell 6.3% and 10.8% year-on-year respectively. From October 1 to 3, new commercial housing sales in Wuhan rose more than 10% year-on-year, while sales area and sales value in Shiyan both rose about 13% year-on-year.
The National Day holiday peak for new energy vehicles brought a major charging test
In the first three days of the National Day holiday, there were 2,968,600 charging sessions for new energy vehicles on national highways, with charging volume reaching 71.6193 million kilowatt-hours, averaging 23.8731 million kilowatt-hours per day, up 49.39% from the same period last year. On October 1 alone, national highway charging volume rose 60.4% year-on-year, setting a record high for a single holiday day. Xinhua reporting noted that "the holiday charging tidal problem remains an unavoidable real test." China's current total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure units (guns) has exceeded 24 million. The earlier "15th Five-Year Plan for New Power System Construction" proposed a target of more than 40 million by 2030, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 13.6% from 2027 to 2030. The latest data from the National Energy Administration showed that, based on statistical analysis of 62,700 highway charging facilities (guns) included in the national charging facility monitoring service platform, in the first three days of this year's National Day holiday, there were 2,968,600 charging sessions for new energy vehicles on national highways; charging volume reached 71.6193 million kilowatt-hours, averaging 23.8731 million kilowatt-hours per day, up 49.39% from the same period last year. October 1 was the concentrated travel peak, with multiple data points "setting new records": national highway charging volume reached 28.0469 million kilowatt-hours, up 60.4% from the first day of last year's National Day holiday and a record high for a single holiday day; and daily charging volume on Southern Power Grid's unified charging service platform "Shunyichong" exceeded 10 million kilowatt-hours for the first time. The total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure units (guns) has exceeded 24 million, and China has built the world's largest electric vehicle charging network. About 89,000 charging facilities have been built cumulatively in highway service areas; from January to August this year, about 11,000 high-power charging facilities were newly added in service areas, equivalent to the total previously accumulated. The "15th Five-Year Plan for New Power System Construction" proposed that by 2030, the total number of charging infrastructure units will exceed 40 million, with about 300,000 high-power charging facilities, forming charging service capacity to support more than 110 million electric vehicles.
The Ministry of Commerce responded to France and Germany's call for the EU to strengthen protectionist tools
On October 3, the Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports of para-nitrotoluene originating in the EU. Para-nitrotoluene is mainly used to produce para-toluidine, DSD acid, para-nitrobenzoic acid, toluene diisocyanate, tolidine and other products, and is widely used in dyes, pigments, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and other fields. On October 6, the Ministry of Commerce responded to France and Germany's call for the EU to strengthen protectionist tools, pointing out that interdependence is not a risk, intertwined interests are not a threat, and open cooperation is the right path for development. Protectionism cannot improve competitiveness, and decoupling and breaking chains will only harm others without benefiting oneself. On October 3, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement launching an anti-dumping investigation into imports of para-nitrotoluene originating in the EU. Para-nitrotoluene is mainly used to produce para-toluidine, DSD acid, para-nitrobenzoic acid, toluene diisocyanate, tolidine and other products, and is widely used in dyes, pigments, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and other fields. According to a Ministry of Commerce spokesperson's response to reporters, "this investigation was launched at the request of the domestic industry. From 2022 to 2025, the volume of para-nitrotoluene imported from the EU remained at a high level, and prices fell by nearly 60% cumulatively. Dumped imports from the EU have harmed the production and operations of China's domestic industry."
Domestic growth-stabilization policies may fall short of or exceed expectations, and the implementation effects of growth-stabilization policies may fall short of or exceed expectations; changes in external geopolitical conflicts may be repeated or their impact may exceed expectations; changes in the external tariff or trade environment may exceed expectations; changes in the global liquidity environment may tighten more than expected; there may be misunderstandings of macro and industrial policies; and follow-up holiday travel data may exceed or fall short of expectations.