During the week of February 2nd to February 6th, the international crude oil market experienced significant volatility, with bullish and bearish forces engaging in intense struggle at elevated price levels. The interplay between fluctuating geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. economic data forced traders into a difficult choice between "supply risks" and "demand concerns." Although the week closed with a loss, ending a six-week consecutive winning streak, a rebound on Friday and the emergence of a classic technical pattern on the weekly chart suggest the next phase of trading may be headed for a decisive directional move.

**Weekly Performance Recap: A Close-Range Battle Between Bulls and Bears** This week, the two major international benchmark crude oils experienced roller-coaster price action, with volatility expanding noticeably. The price of U.S. WTI crude futures opened the week with a sharp decline, plunging over 5% on Monday to mark its largest single-day drop in recent times. However, the selling pressure did not persist. Prices staged a rapid recovery on Tuesday and Wednesday, nearly erasing all losses from the start of the week. This strength failed to carry into Thursday, as prices fell again by more than 2%. On Friday, market sentiment reversed once more, with oil prices managing to close higher after declining during the trading session. Ultimately, WTI crude finished the week down 3.14%, halting the continuous rally seen since late last year.

The trajectory of Brent crude futures largely mirrored that of WTI. It also suffered a sharp decline of nearly 5% on Monday, followed by rebounds of 2.3% and 1.1% on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. After turning lower on Thursday, it closed higher on Friday alongside WTI.

More critically, from a technical perspective, the weekly chart for WTI crude printed a classic "Long-Legged Doji" candlestick. This candlestick features a very small real body (almost appearing as a horizontal line) accompanied by very long upper and lower shadows. This pattern is a classic signal of a temporary equilibrium and intensely fierce battle between bullish and bearish forces at the current price level, often indicating exhaustion of the prevailing trend's momentum and a potential major reversal. Traders are widely watching to see if the closing price of the next candlestick falls below the real body of this Doji, which could confirm a bearish reversal trend. Conversely, a close above the real body would suggest the current uptrend might regain its footing and continue.

**Core Driving Factors: The "EKG" of Geopolitical Risk vs. The "Cold Water" of Demand Worries** The sharp fluctuations in the oil market this week were primarily driven by the repeated tug-of-war between two core forces: 1. **U.S.-Iran Negotiations: The On-Again, Off-Again Geopolitical "EKG"** The primary focus for the market this week consistently revolved around the indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. held in Oman. These negotiations aimed to bridge the sharp differences between the two sides regarding Iran's nuclear program. The inherent uncertainty surrounding the progress of the talks acted like an "EKG," influencing every fluctuation in oil prices. * *Agenda Divisions Heighten Worries:* Before the talks, fundamental disagreements on the agenda—with Iran wanting to focus on nuclear issues and the U.S. side hoping to include discussions on Iran's ballistic missile program and its regional influence—fueled persistent market concerns about a breakdown in negotiations and an escalation of tensions. The potential for disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, in the event of U.S.-Iran conflict poses a direct threat to the supply of roughly one-fifth of the world's oil consumption. This is a core source of risk premium supporting oil prices. * *Negotiation Swings Rattle Markets:* John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, aptly described the market sentiment: "The Iran situation remains volatile. Sometimes it looks better for a day, or even an hour, then it turns worse again. Anxiety over Iran has become a constant." The rebound in oil prices on Friday stemmed precisely from traders' renewed worries that the U.S.-Iran talks had failed to effectively reduce the risk of military conflict. Statements from the Iranian foreign minister following the talks, indicating that representatives would return home for consultations and that talks would continue in the future, failed to provide certainty to the market, instead reinforcing the unresolved nature of the situation. * *Market Logic:* Any positive signs from the negotiations tend to weigh on oil prices (by easing supply disruption risks), while any signals of deadlock or deterioration tend to push prices higher. The significant volatility this week was a direct reflection of this sentiment shifting in real-time.

2. **Economic Data and Supply Events: The "Cold Water" Thrown on the Market** Beyond geopolitical risks, news from the fundamental side primarily played a bearish role. * *U.S. Economic Data Sparks Demand Concerns:* Labor market data released this week showed signs of weakness, including higher-than-expected initial jobless claims and job openings falling to a multi-year low. These figures intensified market worries about slowing economic momentum in the world's largest oil consumer. An economic slowdown directly implies weaker oil demand, creating a counterpoint to the supply premium driven by geopolitical risks. * *Limited Impact from Kazakh Supply Disruption:* Reports indicated that Kazakhstan's crude oil export schedule via the Russian route for this month might see a significant drop due to a slow recovery at the Tengiz field following a fire. While this event should have provided support from the supply side, its impact was overshadowed by broader economic concerns and geopolitical uncertainty, and it was unable to prevent the weekly decline in oil prices.

**Institutional and Analyst Views: Seeking Balance Amid Uncertainty** Faced with such a complex and rapidly changing market environment, analysts' views also focus on assessing risks and uncertainties. The perspective of John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, reflects the prevailing market sentiment that the Iran issue has become a persistent, "background noise" type of risk, whose rapidly changing nature makes oil prices highly susceptible to sharp, impulsive swings. Most market observers believe oil prices are currently at a critical crossroads. On one hand, the geopolitical risk premium, particularly the unpredictability of U.S.-Iran relations, provides a solid "floor" for prices. Any potential for an accidental clash could quickly drive prices higher. On the other hand, the gloom over the macroeconomic outlook, especially the underlying concerns about economic recession implied by strengthened market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, constitutes a "ceiling" that caps upward price movement. Technical analysts are paying close attention to the "Long-Legged Doji" weekly candlestick formed this week. They point out that this pattern is a clear technical signal of market hesitation and waning trend strength. It does not directly indicate the direction but suggests that impending price movements could be very volatile and set the tone for the next medium-term trend. Traders are closely watching next week's closing price to confirm whether a downward breakout or a resumption of the uptrend is underway.

**Weekly Summary and Outlook** In summary, the crude oil market during the week of February 2nd to 6th perfectly illustrated how market sentiment at historically high levels can be torn by conflicting information. The geopolitical "powder keg" and the economic growth "speed bump" jointly orchestrated this wide-swinging volatility. The "Long-Legged Doji" closing the week serves as a technical snapshot of this extreme standoff between bulls and bears. Looking ahead, the short-term path for oil prices will still depend on the evolution of two key variables: first, the next "waveform" on the "U.S.-Iran risk EKG," where any substantive progress in talks or a hardening of military postures will trigger sharp market reactions; and second, the tone of macroeconomic data, particularly from the U.S. economy, which will determine the weight of demand-side concerns. Traders need to prepare for continued high volatility, as the market awaits a powerful catalyst to break the fragile equilibrium at high levels and decide whether to undergo a deeper correction downward or absorb the bearish factors and advance to a higher range. Until the situation becomes clearer, this precarious, range-bound pattern is likely to remain the dominant theme.