August 26 - Global oil exports continue to maintain robust levels recently, remaining above the seasonal average of the past decade. FPG Financial International believes that despite increased supply, particularly from South America led by Brazil and Guyana's production growth, as well as the Middle East's production increases amid OPEC+'s gradual easing of production cuts, global oil demand has remained resilient this summer, effectively absorbing the additional supply. As the Northern Hemisphere's summer peak oil consumption period nears its end, the overall supply-demand balance remains stable.

FPG Financial International states that South America has become a key driver of global oil export growth. According to data from energy trade flow analysis firm Vortexa, global crude oil and condensate exports maintained approximately 41 million barrels per day in the first half of August 2025, 2% above the seasonal average from 2016-2024 and exceeding levels from the same periods in 2023 and 2024. Although Pacific Basin exports were 7% below seasonal averages, production increases from Brazil and Guyana drove South American exports 9% higher year-on-year. Additionally, Atlantic Basin exports overall remained strong. FPG Financial International notes that while exports from major Middle Eastern oil-producing and exporting regions did not show significant increases, some countries like Iraq compensated for past overproduction, and high temperatures led to strong domestic power generation demand, which partly balanced the supply increases under OPEC+'s production cut rollback.

However, downward pressure on oil prices is beginning to emerge. FPG Financial International believes that as the summer peak season ends, domestic demand within OPEC+ countries declines, while further production increase plans for September are set to be implemented, challenging market price stability. According to Vortexa citing Argus data, the Dubai crude oil spot-to-three-month forward contract spread narrowed to $2.37 per barrel on August 15, down from nearly $3 at the beginning of the month, though still above the first half of 2025 average of $2.104. Market analysis shows that the narrowing of futures spot contract premiums indicates traders expect sufficient supply after summer demand ends, thereby easing market tensions.

Refining throughput will decline after September, while OPEC+ production increases will release more supply, gradually alleviating supply-demand tensions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global crude oil processing capacity is expected to approach a historical high of 85.6 million barrels per day in August, with third-quarter year-on-year growth reaching 1.6 million barrels per day, significantly higher than the first half's average growth of 130,000 barrels per day. However, FPG Financial International indicates that the market widely expects that entering the fourth quarter, slowing demand combined with rising supply may lead to price pressure. Strong South American and Atlantic Basin exports, along with weakening demand expectations, have already begun affecting oil price structure and spreads. Seasonal declines in European crude oil imports and autumn refinery maintenance have also started pressuring Atlantic Basin crude oil prices, with the Brent-Dubai futures swap spread falling from $3.7 at the end of June to $0.23 on August 18. FPG Financial International believes that while inventories remain relatively low, the potential risks of slowing demand and increasing supply are rising, and the market still needs to monitor potential volatility from macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.