Abstract

National Fuel Gas will report fiscal Q1 2026 results on January 28, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching revenue momentum, margins, and EPS as seasonal winter demand and upstream pricing frame expectations.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest company-level forecast set, this quarter’s revenue is estimated at $657.60 million with estimated year-over-year growth of 6.56%, EBIT is forecast at $272.98 million with year-over-year growth of 22.48%, and EPS is estimated at $2.04 with year-over-year growth of 34.03%. The market looks for a winter-driven uptick in margin quality, though no explicit consensus gross margin, net profit, or adjusted EPS forecast was available beyond the above estimates; overall tone implies seasonal leverage benefiting profitability. The company’s integrated upstream and gathering/processing business underpins the revenue base, while the utility and pipeline & storage provide steadier cash flows; the near-term highlight is expected volume and pricing uplift in exploration and production, while the utility segment’s stable contribution supports overall mix. The most promising segment is integrated upstream and gathering, with last quarter revenue of $300.36 million; the focus is on potential year-over-year expansion given stronger winter volumes, though specific YoY data for the segment was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter (fiscal Q4 2025), National Fuel Gas reported revenue of $456.41 million, a gross profit margin of 69.11%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $107.00 million with a net margin of 23.02%, and adjusted EPS of $1.22, with year-over-year EPS growth of 58.44%. A notable highlight was the solid margin structure into the shoulder season, with net profit down 28.35% quarter-on-quarter but supported by resilient gross margins. Main business revenue mix featured integrated upstream and gathering/processing at $300.36 million, utility at $87.83 million, and pipeline & storage at $68.22 million; specific year-over-year changes were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Integrated Upstream and Gathering/Processing

As the largest revenue contributor, the upstream and gathering/processing segment is poised to be the primary earnings driver into the winter quarter. The quarter’s EPS estimate of $2.04 and EBIT estimate of $272.98 million imply higher throughput and favorable operating leverage compared with the prior quarter. Seasonal demand patterns typically support realized pricing and volume uplift for natural gas and NGLs, which may translate into stronger netbacks than shoulder-quarter norms. Given the historically higher commodity sensitivity of this segment, incremental changes in regional spot prices and basis differentials can disproportionately impact segment EBIT. The company’s integrated model—including midstream handling—often moderates volatility, however, and the forecasted year-over-year growth in EBIT of 22.48% suggests operational and cost discipline are expected to convert incremental revenue efficiently into profit. Investors will watch whether gathering and processing utilization aligns with winter volume peaks, and whether service costs remain contained, sustaining the gross margin trajectory observed last quarter.

Utility Operations

The utility segment, with last quarter revenue of $87.83 million, serves as the stabilizer for consolidated results through regulated returns and predictable seasonal consumption. In winter quarters, residential and commercial demand generally lifts throughput, typically improving revenue and margin consistency. While regulatory mechanisms shape allowed returns, colder-than-normal weather can drive higher volumes and revenue within approved rate structures, sustaining cash flows even if upstream price volatility emerges. For the upcoming print, the utility’s steady contribution should support a smoother earnings profile and help offset any potential commodity-driven swings in upstream. Operating efficiency, bad-debt trends, and any recent rate adjustments will influence the net margin conversion; given the company-level EPS growth estimate of 34.03% year-over-year, a balanced uplift from utility throughput and prudent O&M management would reinforce consolidated resilience.

Pipeline & Storage

Pipeline and storage, which generated $68.22 million last quarter, is likely to benefit from elevated winter transportation and storage economics. Seasonal spreads can incentivize higher storage withdrawals and repositioning, supporting tariff revenue and potentially ancillary services. Capacity utilization trends and contracted volumes provide visibility, which should underpin the EBIT outlook and contribute to the projected consolidated EBIT of $272.98 million. Integration with upstream assets can optimize flows and reduce bottlenecks, aiding cost control and margin preservation. Investors will focus on whether winter basis differentials and storage spreads remain favorable enough to enhance revenue beyond baseline contracted levels, as this would augment the revenue mix quality without materially increasing risk.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Earnings sensitivity to winter weather and regional gas pricing is a central variable; colder-than-normal conditions could lift volumes and realized prices, supporting the EPS estimate of $2.04. Cost discipline and service cost trends across upstream and midstream will be critical to sustaining the 69.11% gross margin observed last quarter; deviations could move consolidated margins away from expectations. Finally, signals on capital allocation—such as maintenance of dividend cadence, leverage metrics, and any updated capital spending plans—can shape valuation multiples, especially if the company reaffirms a path consistent with the forecast 22.48% EBIT growth and 6.56% revenue growth.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent commentaries, the balance of views leans constructive on National Fuel Gas into the winter quarter, with a majority of analysts projecting sequential and year-over-year improvement in profitability driven by commodity-linked uplift and stable regulated contributions. Positive takes emphasize the potential for operational leverage in upstream and midstream, and supportive winter demand patterns that could sustain the EPS estimate of $2.04 and EBIT of $272.98 million. Analysts also underline the role of the regulated utility and contracted pipeline capacity in smoothing earnings, helping to align the forecast profile with reduced volatility through the season. Overall, the tilt is positive heading into the January 28, 2026 Post Market report, with investors attuned to weather sensitivity, basis differentials, and cost execution as the main swing factors.