An acute shortage of memory chips that weighed heavily on the PC industry this year is expected to ease next year. Major manufacturers such as Lenovo, HP and Dell have completed long-term supply agreements (LTAs) with memory producers to lock in stable supply, while at the same time shifting their business focus from the consumer segment (B2C) toward the enterprise segment (B2B) in search of new profit support.

According to South Korea's Electronic News on Tuesday, these PC makers saw actual deliveries of DRAM and solid-state drives (SSDs) reach only 70% to 80% of demand in the first half of this year, as AI infrastructure investment drove a surge in memory demand. One PC company executive said the signing of the LTAs means component procurement next year "will not face major problems."

Meanwhile, data from market research firm Omdia shows global PC shipments fell 21% year-on-year in the third quarter of this year and are expected to decline by another 7% next year. Consumer demand remains persistently weak, but enterprise demand for AI PCs is holding up, emerging as a new growth engine for the industry.

Shortages dealt a heavy blow to PC makers this year

This year, the accelerating buildout of AI servers and data centers triggered explosive growth in memory chip demand, leaving PC makers clearly at a disadvantage in competing with AI infrastructure customers for limited supply. According to Electronic News, in the first half of this year, major PC makers' DRAM and SSD deliveries met only 70% to 80% of actual demand, dealing a clear blow to production plans.

To address the situation, major manufacturers including Lenovo, HP and Dell have successively completed LTAs with memory producers. Long-term agreements typically lock in supply volumes and price ranges over a set period, helping manufacturers avoid price volatility and supply uncertainty in the spot market.

It is worth noting that the contraction in consumer PC demand has also objectively eased supply pressure. Falling shipments mean lower overall procurement demand, which in turn reduces the strain on supply chain allocation.

Cost pressure to ease next year, though upside risks remain

Although DRAM and Simpson Manufacturing prices are still expected to keep rising next year, the signing of LTAs will offset some of the upward pressure. Factoring in increases in CPU and GPU prices, Electronic News cited industry forecasts saying overall PC component prices are expected to rise about 10% to 20% next year, lower than this year's pressure level.

More stable component supply will improve production continuity, while narrower price increases will help protect profit margins. With these factors combined, PC makers' operating pressure next year is expected to be lighter than this year.

However, weak consumer demand remains a major risk. Persistent increases in PC factory prices, combined with a macroeconomic slowdown, are weighing on consumers' purchasing power, and the recovery pace of the B2C market is expected to be slow. Omdia expects global PC shipments to fall another 7% next year.

B2B and AI PCs become the industry's new pillars

Faced with continued weakness on the consumer side, major PC makers are accelerating their shift toward the enterprise segment. Faster deployment of enterprise AI applications, combined with employee device replacement cycles, is providing a relatively stable demand base for the B2B PC market.

AI PCs — laptops or desktops that can run AI computing locally on the device without connecting to the cloud — are becoming the core growth narrative for the industry. According to Omdia data, AI PC shipments accounted for 48.3% of total U.S. market shipments in the second quarter of this year and are expected to surpass 50% in the third quarter. Shipments of high-end PCs priced above $1,500 rose 36.8% against the broader trend, showing that demand from enterprises and high-end consumers for performance upgrades remains strong.

One PC industry representative said that despite weak consumer demand, B2B demand for AI PCs will continue to grow, adding that "expanding the AI PC product line and increasing supply volumes on the basis of stable component supply is the core business goal for next year."