The three major airlines rose collectively. As of press time, AIR CHINA (00753) gained 3.23% to HK$5.75; CHINA EAST AIR (00670) increased 3.21% to HK$3.22; and CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055) climbed 2.01% to HK$4.06.
On the news front, big data from VariFlight shows that as of September 26, domestic flight ticket bookings for the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday have exceeded 10.19 million tickets, with daily average bookings up approximately 6% compared to the same period last year. International flight ticket bookings surpassed 1.69 million tickets, with daily average bookings rising about 12% year-over-year.
Additionally, data from FlightManager DAST indicates that as of September 25, the average pre-sale bare ticket price for this year's National Day holiday reached 819 yuan, representing a 9.1% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
Notably, oil prices fell sharply on Monday, influenced by signs that OPEC+ may decide to increase production again in November at its October meeting. WTI crude futures dropped 4% intraday, marking the largest decline since June.
Guotai Haitong Securities emphasizes the long-term aviation logic, expecting Q3 earnings to achieve counter-trend growth, with robust travel demand during the October Golden Week and continued focus on business travel recovery sustainability. The firm noted that business demand was strong in September, and travel demand during the October Golden Week remains robust. Benefiting from the release of suppressed business demand during the summer travel season and the forward shift of business demand due to major meetings in October, September business demand was strong and is expected to reach a historical high for the same period. High load factors drove domestic fuel-inclusive ticket prices to turn positive year-over-year, and the September off-season will again retain a large proportion of fuel cost reductions, supporting Q3 2025 performance growth year-over-year.
Considering the consecutive National Day and Mid-Autumn holidays with significant extended vacation effects, the firm expects strong travel demand during the October Golden Week. Airlines maintain optimistic expectations with good pre-sale volume and pricing, and suggest paying attention to the impact of extended vacations on last-minute ticket pricing.