Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is trouncing the stock market this year, which makes the company’s annual meeting in Omaha on May 3 a celebration of 60 years of good fortune, but also a moment to reflect on what is still to come.
Buffett’s star has never burned brighter. Few companies have created more wealth for individual investors than Berkshire, with many long-term holders sitting on stock worth $100 million or more. The Class A shares, now around $795,000 and near a record, are up 40,000-fold from around $20 in 1965, when Buffett took control of a struggling textile company and began his run as Berkshire’s leader.
Berkshire has stood out in a year when many are moaning about losses in their equity portfolios. The stock is up 17%, besting the S&P 500 by 23 points, the widest margin since 2007. Buffett’s decision to build a war chest of more than $300 billion of cash and equivalents—the most of any U.S. company—by selling a net $134 billion of stocks last year, mostly Apple shares, now looks prescient.
Yet investors may be feeling some unease given Buffett’s age—he turns 95 in August. Buffett told shareholders in his annual letter in February that “it won’t be long” before his likely successor, Berkshire executive Greg Abel, replaces him as CEO. Few companies are more closely associated with their chief executive than Buffett, and that’s a risk for investors. “He’s the most iconic CEO in the history of CEOs,” says KBW analyst Meyer Shields. “A lot of investors own the stock because of Warren Buffett.”
Still, now seems like an inopportune moment to chase Berkshire stock. It looks richly valued relative to its history, and shows little sign that investors are worried the company will lose some of its magic without Buffett at the helm. The Class A shares trade for 1.7 times book value, their highest ratio since 2007, and for 25 times projected 2025 earnings—a larger-than-usual premium to the S&P 500, which fetches about 20 times. What’s more, analysts see little earnings growth this year or next.
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