With the November midterm elections approaching, Donald Trump sought to ease voters' concerns about the cost of living during a rally in Las Vegas. Despite the energy price surge triggered by the U.S.-Iran war he initiated, he attempted to win support by highlighting his economic achievements.
Trump revealed that advisors had warned him an attack on Iran could drive oil prices to $300 per barrel and potentially trigger a "Great Depression," but he remained optimistic, dismissing such outcomes as unlikely.
"Our first-term economic performance was the best in the nation’s history," Trump stated at Thursday’s rally, "and it’s now performing even better—despite a minor incident with that lovely country, Iran."
Although advisors had cautioned about oil price risks, Trump expressed confidence: "I don’t think so. I think we’ll be fine. We always find a way. That won’t happen because our indices just hit record highs."
Investor optimism echoed this sentiment. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices closed at all-time highs for the second consecutive day on Thursday, as traders bet on Trump’s promise of a swift resolution to the conflict.
However, oil prices remain elevated due to stalled crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, driving gasoline prices higher. The global benchmark Brent crude now trades around $94 per barrel, up from about $72 before the conflict began.
Trump is currently touring the West Coast, with stops in Nevada and Arizona—swing states he won in 2024. The trip reflects growing awareness within the administration and among congressional Republicans of the need to remind voters of economic achievements amid severe cost-of-living pressures on American households.
This effort has gained urgency as the White House grapples with the increasingly unpopular Iran war. Polls indicate most Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran and blame it for rising oil prices.
Trump highlighted a provision in his tax law that allows certain Americans to benefit from a "tip tax exemption."
Yet one of the biggest challenges for Republicans remains Trump himself. He frequently veers off-topic to discuss the Iran war or transgender athletes in college sports, as he did again on Thursday.
This week, several Republicans urged Trump to outline a plan to end the conflict. They noted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—which handles about one-fifth of global oil supply—has placed heavy burdens on consumers and farmers.
Trump’s economic pitch may struggle to resonate with voters already strained by the costs of gasoline, healthcare, and other goods. Although tax refunds this year were larger than last year’s, they fell far short of the amounts Trump promised in the months leading up to tax season.
According to IRS data, more people received refunds this year, with the average refund nearly $350 higher than in 2025. However, that represents only about one-third of the $1,000 average increase Trump had pledged.
Early signs also suggest taxpayers have barely noticed the boost. In a recent Bipartisan Policy Center poll, only 27% of respondents said last year’s tax reforms benefited them, while 38% saw no significant change.
To promote his tax policies, the White House arranged a photo opportunity on Monday with a DoorDash delivery driver. Trump asked whether the driver had benefited from his "tip tax exemption" policy. After reporters inquired about the White House’s tipping habits, Trump handed the driver $100 in cash.
Trump was later scheduled to attend an event organized by Turning Point USA, a group that has mobilized young conservative voters—a demographic Republicans are eager to energize. The event carries emotional weight following the death of the organization’s founder, Charlie Kirk, in September of last year.