GLMS SEC has released a research report indicating that the shipping charter market is currently performing in a stable and positive manner overall, with the main differences emerging between various vessel types. In the medium to long term, dry bulk carrier and feeder vessel charter rates are expected to perform well, while tanker rates are anticipated to remain favorable in the short term. Conversely, large container ship rates are likely to face downward pressure. This significant divergence between vessel types will place higher demands on the professional capabilities of ship leasing companies, making the overall fleet structure a crucial factor for future performance. Consequently, shipyard-affiliated leasing companies with closer industry ties are expected to benefit more. It is advisable to monitor the ship leasing sector and focus on manufacturer-affiliated leasing firms with stronger professional expertise. The main points from GLMS SEC's report are as follows:

Dry Bulk Carrier Rates Expected to Maintain High Levels for an Extended Period

As of the end of May 2026, the global dry bulk carrier orderbook-to-fleet ratio stood at 13.42%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points from the end of 2025. However, in absolute terms, this ratio is at the 53rd percentile level since 1996. On the supply side, annual deliveries from 2026 to 2028 are projected to be around 40 million deadweight tons, accounting for less than 5% of the current total fleet capacity. On the demand side, the rapid increase in production from the Simandou project is expected to reach 120 million tons annually, and the shipping distance from Simandou to China is significantly longer than from Australia, thereby boosting overall shipping demand. Furthermore, restrictions on natural gas imports to Japan and South Korea due to the US-Israel-Iran conflict have heightened their focus on coal demand and energy security, generating additional demand for coal shipping capacity. Against a backdrop of limited supply elasticity and significant growth in shipping demand, dry bulk carrier rates are forecast to perform well.

Container Ship Rates Face Overall Pressure, Feeder Vessel Rates May Have Upside Potential

For container ships overall, as of May 2026, the container ship orderbook-to-fleet ratio reached 38.20%, up 10.21 percentage points from the end of 2024, marking the highest level since 2010. While overall container ship rates may face pressure, significant internal divergence is expected. Currently, 79.75% of the orderbook consists of large ships over 8,000 TEU, with small ships under 3,000 TEU accounting for only 6.31%. From a delivery perspective, the average proportion of new container ships with 8,000+ TEU delivered from 2026 to 2030 is 77.43%, while feeder ships account for only 6.14%. In this context, large container ships may face a significant reversal in supply-demand dynamics, leading to notable pressure on overall rate levels. In Q1 2026, Maersk's average freight rate was $2,081 per container, a year-on-year decrease of 14.26%. For feeder vessels, their capacity has historically been squeezed by large container ships, resulting in low overall order and delivery shares. In the current global environment, with trade becoming increasingly fragmented, demand for feeder vessels is expected to rise significantly. In the first five months of 2026, the share of new feeder vessel orders in total new container ship orders increased to 11.84% from 9.64% in 2025. Additionally, the current feeder fleet has a relatively high average age; as of the end of May 2026, the average age for 100-2,999 TEU and 3,000-5,999 TEU vessels was 15.56 and 16.15 years, respectively. Coupled with environmental regulations, future demand for feeder vessels is expected to be strong, providing solid support for their charter rates.

Tanker Rates Expected to Perform Well Short-Term, Medium to Long-Term Outlook Uncertain

Since 2023, new tanker orders have begun to increase. In the first five months of 2026, new orders totaled 54.1497 million deadweight tons, exceeding the full-year 2025 level and representing a year-on-year increase of 470.92%. As of the end of May 2026, the tanker orderbook reached 169 million deadweight tons, up 34.22% from the beginning of the year, with the orderbook-to-fleet ratio at 23.18%, an increase of 5.67 percentage points from the end of 2025. In the short term, tanker rates are supported by several factors. First, the delivery of recent new orders will take time, limiting near-term supply growth. Deliveries in 2026 are projected at 42.6486 million deadweight tons, accounting for 6.13% of the total tanker capacity as of the end of May 2026. Second, the proportion of sanctioned vessels continues to rise. By the end of May 2026, 443 crude oil tankers and 526 product tankers were under sanctions, representing 19.86% and 10.19% of the total fleet, respectively, up 11.40 and 7.24 percentage points from the end of 2024, effectively reducing available capacity. Third, due to the US-Israel-Iran conflict, some tankers are stranded in the Persian Gulf. As of May 21, 2026, 3,207 vessels remained in the Gulf, including 108 crude oil tankers and 175 product tankers, accounting for 6% and 3% of their respective fleets. Additionally, 25 crude oil tankers and 75 product tankers were waiting outside the Gulf, each representing 1% of their fleets. However, as recent orders are delivered over the medium to long term, some uncertainty remains.

Risk Factors

Geopolitical conflicts, declining charter rates, and interest rate risks.