In January, potash fertilizer prices experienced a slight increase, with sulfate of potash (SOP) prices rising due to cost support from sulfur; however, overall trading activity in the potash market remained subdued. Looking at regional market prices, according to data from Argus, the January price agreed upon by Uralkali with Chinese importers was raised by $3 per metric ton compared to previous levels. In Europe, the first-quarter contract prices for both muriate of potash (MOP) and SOP were finalized. Indonesia settled on a standard MOP cost and freight (CFR) price of $383 per metric ton. China finalized its annual potash supply contract with ICL Group at a CFR price of $348 per metric ton. Following the signing of China's 2026 MOP annual contract, sentiment in the global potash market improved significantly, prompting major suppliers to raise their offers accordingly. The tight supply situation was offset by seasonally weak demand in key markets such as Europe, the United States, and Southeast Asia. The CFR price for granular MOP in Brazil is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices anticipated to continue rising as the next fertilizer application season approaches. Concurrently, flooding disasters in parts of Asia have suppressed fertilizer demand, and crop damage may also impact farmers' reserves of funds for agricultural inputs. The Southeast Asian market, already characterized by ample inventories and weak consumption, has seen local buyers exhibit no urgent purchasing intentions due to these factors. Although suppliers hold a more optimistic view of the market, the combination of the above factors with seasonal low demand in European and American markets presents a significant obstacle to further price increases for potash. Currently, the market is closely watching India's next moves. Strong demand from core markets like Brazil and China provides solid support for current potash prices. If India finalizes its annual contract in the coming months, suppliers will gain greater confidence to push for further price hikes. Global potash market demand is expected to improve subsequently, with major markets including China, Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India all projected to initiate active procurement patterns in the first quarter of 2026. Although the concurrent centralized purchasing by these five major markets deviates from seasonal patterns, it is poised to create favorable conditions for suppliers to increase potash prices during the first half of 2026.