International gold markets have recently experienced significant volatility, with prices surging and plunging in rapid succession to create a dramatic rollercoaster pattern. According to Wind data, beginning in early August, international gold prices, using London spot gold as the benchmark, first underwent a period of rapid ascent. Between August 3 and August 25, prices climbed by 15.24%, rising from the $4,000 per ounce level to approach $4,700 per ounce.

However, in the five trading sessions following this peak, gold prices registered consecutive declines. From August 26 to September 1, the cumulative drop reached 7.08%, with single-day falls of nearly 3% recorded on both August 28 and September 1. This pushed international gold prices below the $4,400 per ounce threshold, settling at $4,327.28 per ounce on September 1. Between September 2 and September 4, prices rebounded, moving back above the $4,400 per ounce mark to close at $4,430.52 per ounce on September 4, though this remained nearly $300 per ounce below the August highs.

What factors drove this extraordinary price action? "The recent sharp swings in gold prices mainly stem from a core logic shift, moving from a recovery in risk appetite to heightened expectations of a US interest rate hike," explained Fan Rui, head of non-ferrous metals analysis at Guoyuan Futures. Fan noted that the Federal Reserve Chair's "hawkish" signals at the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Symposium significantly boosted market expectations for a September rate increase. Additionally, renewed geopolitical uncertainties and rising crude oil prices have aggravated inflation concerns, further strengthening rate hike expectations and placing downward pressure on gold.

Ding Zhenyu, senior investment advisor at Shaanxi Jufeng Investment Consulting, echoed this assessment, stating that since August the rapid surge followed by the sharp "plunge" in gold prices was driven primarily by shifting expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy. The concentration of profit-taking from earlier gains also triggered the correction. Recent market signals clearly demonstrate that international gold price movements remain highly sensitive to changes in Fed policy expectations.

On the evening of August 28 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a keynote address at the Jackson Hole symposium, reiterating that the Fed's 2% inflation target is "firm and fixed." He stated that current US financial conditions can "hardly be described as restrictive" and that if underlying inflation fails to decline clearly and quickly enough, the Fed "still has work to do." Market analysts interpreted this as Warsh's closest acknowledgment to date that a rate hike might be necessary. In response to these heightened hike expectations, gold recorded its largest single-day decline in recent weeks that same day.

On September 3, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller struck a more "dovish" tone, cooling market expectations for a rate increase. The US dollar index fell 0.56% that day, providing support for gold, which rose 2.09%. Then on September 4, the release of the August US non-farm payrolls report showed employment figures far exceeding market expectations, reigniting rate hike speculation and pushing gold down 1.08% for the session.

"Over the medium term, gold is primarily influenced by the global monetary policy cycle. US macroeconomic data remains uneven, but we are indeed at a transition window between the rate-cutting cycle and the rate-hiking cycle. Markets continue to price in expectations, with the dollar and Treasuries fluctuating accordingly, placing gold in an adjustment phase," Fan Rui observed. He cautioned that the current price correction does not necessarily signal the end of gold's long-term bull market. As the Fed's rate hike cycle becomes clearly established and implemented, gold's adjustment period should gradually conclude.

Looking ahead to future price trajectories, Ding Zhenyu forecasts that international gold prices will likely experience wide fluctuations within the $4,000 to $4,500 per ounce range in the short term. However, he emphasized that the medium-to-long-term upward trajectory remains solid, supported by key factors including expectations of Fed monetary policy shifts, structural support from continued central bank gold purchases globally, and dollar credit risks stemming from elevated US debt levels.