Open Source Securities has released a research report stating that Beijing's decision to shorten the social insurance contribution period for non-Beijing residents and increase the housing provident fund loan ceiling sends a clear signal. It is expected that loosening restrictions on home purchases in Shanghai and Shenzhen may follow. In the first half of the year, the real estate industry remained in a fragmented state of weak sales recovery and shrinking supply. However, the overall policy environment remains accommodative, with the pace of controlling new supply and destocking accelerating. Meanwhile, high-quality property developers are seeing a sustained recovery in their performance.
The report recommends three investment themes: (1) High-quality property developers with strong product offerings in cities with solid fundamentals; (2) Commercial real estate operators that focus on both commercial operations and asset management, benefiting from the property recovery and consumption-promoting policies; (3) Outstanding property management companies with superior service quality under the 'good homes, good services' policy.
Key Observations from Open Source Securities
On August 7, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued the 'Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policies.' The policy adjusts existing measures regarding home purchase restrictions, gifting, and the housing provident fund, with a significant degree of relaxation.
The new policy is expected to strongly boost Beijing's 'Golden September and Silver October' market. The measures are particularly generous in terms of the housing provident fund, which is anticipated to provide a substantial stimulus to the Beijing market during this period. Regarding home purchase restrictions, the policy reduces the required social insurance or personal income tax payment period for non-Beijing residents purchasing commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road from two consecutive years to one year. On the gifting front, the policy adjusts conditions for property transfers between parents and children, no longer requiring a review of the child's home purchase eligibility. In terms of the housing provident fund, the policy significantly raises the maximum loan ceiling, increasing from 1.2 million yuan for first homes and 1 million yuan for second homes to 2.4 million yuan for first homes and 2 million yuan for second homes for couples where both parties contribute. Additionally, the policy adjusts the premium mechanism, with a maximum increase of 600,000 yuan for single contributors and 1 million yuan for dual contributors for factors such as purchasing homes outside the city's six districts, green buildings, and families with multiple children. The policy also relaxes rules on linking loan amounts to contribution years, the 'recognize house, recognize loan' rule, housing provident fund loans with 'transfer with mortgage,' and housing provident fund withdrawals for renovations.
Following the new policy, the degree of relaxation for home purchase restrictions in Beijing is now similar to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen. In 2026, the Beijing real estate market is expected to show a pattern of 'weak new homes, strong second-hand homes.' From January to July 2026, the cumulative number of online contracted new homes was 60,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%, while the cumulative number of online contracted second-hand homes was 120,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The new policy not only releases incremental purchasing power from new buyers but also boosts residents' purchasing power through the relaxation of housing provident fund loans. Given that the interest rate on housing provident fund loans is lower than that of commercial loans, the policy is expected to have a 'virtual rate cut' effect, thereby enhancing residents' purchasing power.
Risk Warning
Market confidence recovery may fall short of expectations, and the impact of the policy may be less than anticipated.