分析师解读美联储主席鲍威尔调查事件:市场反应与潜在影响

投资观察
Jan 12

ING集团分析师团队指出,美元、股指期货及国债价格的同步下跌,令人联想到去年春季由前总统特朗普关税政策引发的"抛售美国资产"交易潮。该机构认为,市场反应表明投资者认同美联储主席鲍威尔对调查事件的定性——即对美联储独立性的挑战,尽管特朗普已于周日对此予以否认。

分析师观察到,周一早盘国债期货已趋于稳定,这释放出关键信号:市场尚未准备对美联储独立性受损的可能性进行定价。荷兰银行美国经济学家罗吉尔·奎德弗利格分析称,调查时机耐人寻味,可能意图迫使鲍威尔在五月主席任期结束后辞去理事职务。需注意其理事任期可持续至2028年初。

奎德弗利格补充道,若此确为白宫策略,可能因掣肘新主席任命程序而产生反效果。"鉴于此次对美联储独立性的公然挑战,任何提名人选都将被置于更严苛的审视之下。"他强调。

尽管华尔街日报美元指数已从去年七月低点反弹,但自去年一月特朗普就职以来仍累计下跌约7%。法国兴业银行策略师基特·朱克斯指出:"显然,美国主导的地缘政治意外事件频发,叠加总统对低利率的公开偏好,已逐渐侵蚀美元的传统避险地位。"

(本文源自华尔街日报实时报道专题,完整内容可通过检索代码P/WSJL获取)

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