GLMS SEC has released a research report stating that domestic and international demand in the construction machinery sector are expected to align positively by 2026, highlighting opportunities in leading companies. In the third quarter of 2025, the sector's revenue reached 64.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.92 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year. This improvement was primarily driven by a moderate recovery in domestic demand and sustained growth in international sales, enhancing both revenue and profitability. By 2026, demand from both domestic and international markets is anticipated to strengthen simultaneously.

Key viewpoints from GLMS SEC are outlined as follows:

Domestically, growth rates for excavators and non-excavator machinery have turned positive overall, indicating a clear upward trend from the bottom. During the recent downturn, sales of medium and large excavators fell by over 70% within three years, a decline comparable to the five-year drop in the previous cycle, with the bottoming-out process largely completed between 2024 and 2025. (1) Excavators: Domestic excavator sales grew by 18% in 2025, showing strong growth. However, the sales structure remained suboptimal, with small excavators outperforming medium and large ones, due to weaker-than-expected real estate and mining investments and limited flexibility in infrastructure spending. The year 2026 is expected to be a peak period for domestic excavator replacements, supporting long-term growth logic and reinforcing the upward trajectory. (2) Non-Excavator Machinery: Since the second half of 2025, sales growth for non-excavator categories has largely turned positive. Loaders, truck cranes, crawler cranes, and mobile cranes have generally achieved growth rates exceeding 20%, with crawler cranes doubling monthly growth rates due to robust demand from wind power installations. The analysis suggests that both excavator and non-excavator segments in China are entering a recovery phase, with the domestic sales structure expected to be significantly better in 2026 than in 2025.

Internationally, Asia, Africa, and Latin America are experiencing double-digit growth, while Europe and the U.S. have returned to positive territory. Against the backdrop of weak domestic real estate and infrastructure investment, expanding overseas has become a critical strategy for Chinese manufacturers. In 2025, overseas excavator sales reached approximately 117,000 units, a 16% year-on-year increase, accounting for about half of total sales. The growth structure overseas was more favorable, with large excavators outperforming medium and small ones, indicating higher profitability. In 2024, China's share of the global market was about 11%, highlighting substantial room for growth in international markets. According to KHL data, the combined revenue of China's top four manufacturers accounted for only 14% of the top 50 global manufacturers, suggesting significant potential for expansion. With exports to Asia, Africa, and Latin America maintaining double-digit growth in 2025, Europe and the U.S. returning to positive growth, and North America expected to enter an interest rate cut cycle alongside manufacturing repatriation in 2026, overseas demand prospects are optimistic.

Risks include a slower-than-expected recovery in domestic demand, challenges in international expansion, and intensified industry competition.