Shareholders of Rivian Automotive are eagerly anticipating what the company's CEO described as a potential "turning point." However, one analyst has cast doubt on this optimism. The focus is on Rivian's R2, a midsize electric SUV scheduled to begin sales in the second quarter, more than two years after the vehicle was first announced. While Rivian is optimistic that a new, lower-priced vehicle can attract customers in a challenging electric vehicle market, D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Shlisky expressed concern that the assumptions reflected in Rivian's recent outlook may be overly optimistic. "To achieve the current outlook, Rivian would need to execute the best midsize EV launch since 2021, all without the benefit of tax credits or an extensive dealer network," Shlisky cautioned in a report on Tuesday. Shlisky downgraded the stock from Neutral to Underperform and lowered his price target from $15 to $14. Rivian's stock surged over 26% last Friday, marking its largest single-day percentage gain on record, following quarterly results that significantly exceeded expectations. The stock declined over 7% on Tuesday, to approximately $16.47 per share. Rivian anticipates delivering up to 67,000 electric trucks and SUVs, representing a 58% increase compared to 2025. The lower end of the company's delivery guidance is 62,000 vehicles, which would still constitute growth of over 46%. Rivian is scheduled to release more details about the R2 model on March 12, including specific pricing and configuration options. The starting price for the R2 is expected to be around $45,000, making it the most affordable vehicle in Rivian's lineup. "From a customer's perspective, if you want a technologically advanced midsize SUV with autonomous driving capabilities at a reasonable price, you really have only one choice—and that has been the case for a long time," Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe said last week during a call with analysts, a comment seemingly referring to Tesla's Model Y. "This reflects an underserved market. We believe the R2 will change that," he added. Achieving this may be easier said than done. "We think the R2 will be compelling, but Rivian needs many things to go right to hit its targets for the year," stated Shlisky. He added that the company's outlook for its R1S and R1T models appears subdued and that the R2 launch is "not without significant risk." To meet its delivery goals, Rivian may need to sell between 20,000 and 25,000 R2 units in its first year of availability. According to D.A. Davidson data, among EV models launched post-pandemic with prices between $40,000 and $50,000, only Ford's Mustang Mach-E sold approximately that volume in its debut year. Shlisky also noted that the Mustang Mach-E benefited from substantial discounts, high gasoline prices, a nationwide dealer network, and a tax credit that expired last September. U.S. electric vehicle sales declined 36% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to Cox Automotive, ending an otherwise strong year on a disappointing note. Several automakers, including Ford, have begun scaling back their EV operations to adapt to the less favorable market conditions. Scaringe suggested this dynamic could actually benefit Rivian. During last week's earnings call, he added that Tesla's decision to discontinue its Model S and Model X luxury EVs has created an "opportunity" to sell more of Rivian's premium vehicles. Rivian's focus on developing autonomous vehicle technology and improving vehicle cost efficiency has led some analysts to be more bullish on the stock than Shlisky. Deutsche Bank reiterated a Buy rating with a $23 price target, while Stifel maintained its Buy rating and raised its price target from $17 to $20.