美东时间下午2:29——美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话对国债市场的影响似乎正在迅速消退。沃什承诺将通胀降至美联储2%的目标水平，这一表态激发了市场对9月加息的押注。受此影响，对利率变动更为敏感的两年期国债收益率上升速度快于长期国债。
然而，随着霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势再度升级，油价随之飙升，市场风向骤然转变。两年期国债收益率从此前夜间的4.364%高位回落至4.346%。与此同时，十年期国债收益率却逆势上行，攀升至4.758%，创下自2025年1月以来的最高水平。
短期与长期国债走势的明显分化，凸显出地缘政治风险正在重新主导市场情绪，而货币政策预期的影响则在边际减弱。投资者正密切关注中东局势的进一步发展，以判断这一趋势能否持续。
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