Citi has raised its near-term baseline forecast for Brent crude prices to $110-$120 per barrel, according to a recent report. The bank also anticipates that Middle East tensions will ease by mid-to-late April.

Analysts, including Max Layton, noted in the report that potential disruptions to oil supply over the next four to six weeks could amount to 11–16 million barrels per day. This is lower than earlier estimates of around 20 million barrels per day of exports at risk due to shipping concerns through the Strait of Hormuz. Citi set a three-month price target for WTI crude at approximately $104 per barrel.

The bank suggested that oil prices may continue to rise until they reach a level or trigger a market event that prompts the U.S. to halt military operations, and/or until the International Energy Agency or OECD nations implement more aggressive stockpile releases. Alternatively, intervention by global military powers to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz could also influence the market.

Under Citi's baseline scenario, Brent crude is expected to decline to $70–$80 per barrel by year-end.