According to the latest research from TrendForce, demand for AI servers continues to expand, and HBM and Conventional DRAM are still competing for limited advanced process and wafer capacity.

Combined with the fact that yield and output improvements for next-generation products still require time, memory supply is expected to remain tight throughout 2027.

With overall memory prices maintaining an upward trend, suppliers have adopted a firmer stance on HBM price increases for 2027. To reflect the persistent supply tightness, the rising share of high-priced HBM4, and the gradual volume ramp of HBM4e in the second half of 2027, TrendForce has revised up its HBM price outlook for next year, projecting that the blended ASP will rise 121% year on year.

Supply and Cost Constraints Drive Capacity Adjustments, With 8hi Becoming a Priority Option for Many Manufacturers

TrendForce notes that recent discussions among GPU and ASIC makers about reducing HBM capacity per device stem not from weakening end-computing demand, but from limited HBM supply and rapidly rising overall system costs.

Compared with the previously planned 12hi HBM products, 8hi requires fewer DRAM dies, which helps lower the cost of a single stack and the overall bill of materials for GPUs, while also supporting more GPU shipments at the same HBM bit output.

Therefore, amid persistently tight HBM supply, 8hi is expected to become a priority option evaluated by many GPU and ASIC manufacturers in 2027, serving as a compromise between performance, supply volume, and cost for GPU makers.

However, a reduction in HBM capacity does not mean the price per unit capacity (per Gb) will fall in tandem.

Because each HBM stack must carry a Base Die, the related cost does not decline proportionally with fewer stacked layers. The DRAM capacity available to spread the Base Die cost is lower for 8hi products than for 12hi, so the converted per Gb cost is actually higher.

TrendForce estimates that the per Gb price of 8hi products in 2027 may carry a premium of about 10% to 20% over 12hi.

Overall, TrendForce believes the HBM market in 2027 will continue to face a supply shortage. Under the dual considerations of tight supply and rising costs, the penetration rate of the 8hi specification will rise further, making it a priority option evaluated by more GPU and ASIC manufacturers.

However, its per Gb cost structure carries a premium relative to 12hi, which remains an important variable that customers must factor into specification negotiations and supply chain planning.

Therefore, although HBM capacity adjustments in 2027 can partially ease GPU cost pressure, they will hardly reverse the broader trend of sharp HBM price increases.