Looking at POP MART from the perspective of 2026, investors must discard the outdated stereotype of it being a "blind box bubble." A research report from Guolian Minsheng Securities dated February 10th indicates that market perception of the company is undergoing a qualitative leap: evolving from a simple "blind box company" to a "global IP full-industry-chain group." For investors, the most critical impact is a complete shift in the valuation framework—the company is no longer just a retail channel but possesses the potential to be benchmarked against international IP giants like Disney and Sanrio. The report forecasts that the company's total revenue will exceed 51 billion RMB in 2026, with adjusted net profit reaching 18 billion RMB. The logic behind this performance surge is not short-term speculation but is based on proactive supply chain management, deep penetration into the North American market, and a substantial broadening of IP monetization boundaries. Based on the growth elasticity and global scarcity of its IP, the report assigns a 2026 PE ratio of 23 times, corresponding to a target market capitalization of 414 billion RMB.

The market's concern over the recent decline in popularity of the core IP Labubu on Google Trends and North American social media is defined in the report as "healthy consolidation" rather than a sign of collapse. This is fundamentally different from the "Beanie Babies" bubble of the past. The cooling of Labubu's热度 is a result of the company's active management, aimed at squeezing out speculative bubbles in the secondary market through refined, tiered supply. Data shows that in the second half of 2025, the company's plush production capacity increased tenfold year-on-year, exceeding 30 million units in August. This optimization on the supply side has successfully guided prices back to rationality, laying the foundation for long-term healthy growth. More importantly, Labubu's lifecycle is being extended through a "family strategy." Mirroring the Duffy and Friends family at Tokyo Disney, POP MART is building an IP universe by introducing characters like ZIMOMO and MOKOKO. In January 2026, the company launched a 10th-anniversary product line for THE MONSTERS covering 10 family IP members, demonstrating its ability to enhance per-customer value through multi-character penetration. Currently, even after the热度回调, Labubu's search index remains five times that of KAWS and is on par with Doraemon, signifying its stable transition from a "phenomenal hit" to a "global evergreen IP."

Investor concerns about over-reliance on a single IP have been addressed, as the company has established a replicable, industrialized IP incubation system. Beyond its top-tier IP, the new IP梯队 is performing strongly, particularly "Xing Xing Ren," which was introduced just one year ago. Unlike Labubu, which relies on social media virality, Xing Xing Ren has rapidly gained popularity through its "healing" emotional appeal and strong channel push. Data shows that in the first half of 2025 alone, Xing Xing Ren IP revenue reached 390 million RMB. This proves POP MART's capability to批量制造 medium-sized IPs, forming a complementary matrix with Labubu and ensuring continuous iteration and performance接力 within the product portfolio.

The North American market is becoming a new key growth driver, with its expansion strategy shifting from initial single-store testing to a mature "cluster-based deployment." The report analysis指出 that POP MART has adopted a site selection logic in North America similar to that of Apple and Pandora, estimating a long-term potential for 270 to 550 stores. The current布局 shows significant strategy, such as密集开店 in areas like Houston and Florida to achieve regional penetration. The localization of the management team is core to executing this strategy. The company has brought in executives like Justin Moon, with backgrounds at CJ Group and Lotte, as well as local executives with retail experience from companies like Lovisa and Sunglass Hut, building an organizational structure with strong retail DNA. Through a three-tier network of "flagship stores + core stores + channel stores," coupled with a plan to double the store count by 2026, the North American market is expected to contribute 13.5 billion RMB in revenue in 2026, becoming a key engine for global growth.

Expansion in the European market focuses more on establishing brand identity and cultural influence. In the first half of 2025, revenue from Europe and other regions surged 729% year-on-year to 478 million RMB. The company has adopted a strategy of partnering with cultural landmarks like the Louvre and Centre Pompidou and is辐射 core markets such as France and Italy through its European headquarters established in London, UK. Future plans include adding 7 new stores in the UK, including a flagship store on Oxford Street, and expanding with 20 stores across Europe to further increase market coverage density. Simultaneously, the company is extending IP monetization into higher-frequency and higher-average-order-value segments through two new business lines: POP BAKERY and POPOP. POP BAKERY targets everyday social scenarios with pricing from 39 to 199 RMB, while POPOP enhances brand value with affordable luxury jewelry priced from 249 to 2,699 RMB. These new ventures not only enrich the IP consumption experience but also further unlock the lifetime value of its 50 million members through synergy with the core business.

In summary, the report holds a highly optimistic view of POP MART's performance growth in 2026. It is projected that the company's total revenue will reach 51 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit at 18 billion RMB, representing a 22% year-on-year increase. This growth stems not only from improved sales per square foot due to store renovations in China but also from explosive growth in overseas markets—overseas revenue is expected to reach 25 billion RMB in 2026, accounting for nearly half of the total. With the deepening of its global布局 and the maturation of new businesses, POP MART is undergoing a remarkable transformation from a trendy toy retailer into a global IP commercial empire.